The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its economic outlook for Poland downward amid wider uncertainty surrounding global trade.
The lender now expects the Polish economy to grow by 3.4% in 2025, 0.4% less than in an earlier estimate published in September. It expects growth to slow down to 3.2% in 2026.
Despite the revision in the bank’s new report, ‘Weaker momentum amid fragmenting trade and investment,’ Poland remains one of the fastest-growing economies in its region.
The average downward revision for the Central Europe and the Baltic states region was more severe than in Poland, at -0.5%.
GDP growth in the region as a whole is predicted to be around 2.7% in 2025 and 2.8% the following year, driven largely by resilient labor markets.
The bank’s downward revision is due to “the slower-than-expected recovery in advanced Europe, which has dampened manufacturing, exports and investment,” it said.
The London-based bank also revised its forecast for Ukraine.
According to the bank, the country, which is entering a third year of all-out war with Russia, will see economic growth of 3.5% this year, down 1.2% from the previous estimate.
The report predicts that Ukraine’s 2026 GDP growth, provided that an agreement to suspend fighting is reached this year, will further strengthen to 5%.
But the impact of growth could be offset by the country’s double-digit inflation, which will likely oscillate around the 12% mark, the report said.
In general, EBRD has revised down its GDP forecasts for the developing economies in which the bank invests by 0.3%, pointing to uncertainty over trade and inflationary pressures.
“That downward revision stems primarily from weaker external demand in Central Europe, the Baltic states and southeastern EU countries,” EBRD writes.
The bank has also calculated the impact of a potential 10% tariff hike on all imports into the United States.
In such a scenario, GDP in regions where the bank operates “could reduce by 0.1-0.2% in the short term,” it said.
“While the Slovak Republic, Hungary and Lithuania are some of the EBRD economies that are most vulnerable to such measures owing to their overall trade exposure to the U.S. market, the report shows that Bulgaria, Slovenia and Romania are the most exposed to recently announced increases in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.”
U.S. President Donald Trump recently said that he is preparing a 25% tariff on the EU as a bloc, which would have an even larger impact on European economies.
Despite the revision in the bank’s new report, ‘Weaker momentum amid fragmenting trade and investment,’ Poland remains one of the fastest-growing economies in its region.
The average downward revision for the Central Europe and the Baltic states region was more severe than in Poland, at -0.5%.
GDP growth in the region as a whole is predicted to be around 2.7% in 2025 and 2.8% the following year, driven largely by resilient labor markets.
The bank’s downward revision is due to “the slower-than-expected recovery in advanced Europe, which has dampened manufacturing, exports and investment,” it said.
Ukraine: growth and inflation
The London-based bank also revised its forecast for Ukraine.
According to the bank, the country, which is entering a third year of all-out war with Russia, will see economic growth of 3.5% this year, down 1.2% from the previous estimate.
The report predicts that Ukraine’s 2026 GDP growth, provided that an agreement to suspend fighting is reached this year, will further strengthen to 5%.
But the impact of growth could be offset by the country’s double-digit inflation, which will likely oscillate around the 12% mark, the report said.
‘Weaker external demand’
In general, EBRD has revised down its GDP forecasts for the developing economies in which the bank invests by 0.3%, pointing to uncertainty over trade and inflationary pressures.
“That downward revision stems primarily from weaker external demand in Central Europe, the Baltic states and southeastern EU countries,” EBRD writes.
The bank has also calculated the impact of a potential 10% tariff hike on all imports into the United States.
In such a scenario, GDP in regions where the bank operates “could reduce by 0.1-0.2% in the short term,” it said.
“While the Slovak Republic, Hungary and Lithuania are some of the EBRD economies that are most vulnerable to such measures owing to their overall trade exposure to the U.S. market, the report shows that Bulgaria, Slovenia and Romania are the most exposed to recently announced increases in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.”
U.S. President Donald Trump recently said that he is preparing a 25% tariff on the EU as a bloc, which would have an even larger impact on European economies.
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