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Hirsch on the Economy: Eastern Europe’s wage growth outpaces the West, but gaps remain

Photo by Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images
Poles are also living longer but this could have implications on how much they will get for their monthly pension. Photo by Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images
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The average hourly wage in Poland reached €14.20 in 2024 – a substantial 19% increase compared to the previous year, making it the fastest wage growth in the entire European Union. According to new data from Eurostat, this dramatic rise far outpaced the EU-wide average increase of just 5.1%, highlighting the rapid pace at which Poland's labor market is developing.

However, despite this strong performance, Poland’s wage levels still lag significantly behind those in Western Europe. In Germany, for instance, the average hourly wage rose by a modest 5% last year, but now stands at €33.30 – more than double the Polish rate. In other words, a Polish worker earns just 43% of what their German counterpart makes for the same hour of work. That said, the gap is gradually narrowing. Four years ago, the average Polish wage stood at only 31% of the German equivalent, underscoring how far the country has come in a relatively short time.

Part of Poland’s exceptional wage growth is explained by the appreciation of the Polish złoty against the euro over the past year. Since Eurostat reports all wage statistics in euros, local currency earnings are converted using the prevailing exchange rate. As the złoty strengthened, euro-denominated wage figures in Poland were boosted further. When measured in local currency, the growth in hourly wages was still strong – just under 13% – but not quite as eye-catching as the euro-based figure. Even so, this placed Poland fifth in the EU for local-currency wage growth, behind Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.

Poland’s current wage level is mid-range compared to other Central and Eastern European economies. The average hourly wage in the Czech Republic stands at €13.70, Slovakia at €13.30, Hungary at €12.10 and Romania at €11.80. Slightly ahead of Poland are Croatia and Estonia, both at €14.60, followed by Lithuania at €15.50 and Slovenia at €23.30. Remarkably, Slovenia’s average wages have now edged ahead of those in Italy by more than 4%, further illustrating how wage convergence is reshaping the economic map of the EU.

Poland climbs EU wealth rankings as life expectancy rises


Poland has taken another step forward in closing the economic gap with Western Europe. According to the latest Eurostat data, Poland’s GDP per capita in 2024 reached 79% of the EU average – up from 77% the previous year. This result pushes Poland ahead of Hungary, which remains at 77%, and puts it level with Romania and Estonia. It is the first time Poland has matched Estonia since 2002, marking a noteworthy symbolic shift.

A year ago, Romania had temporarily edged ahead of Poland, but both countries are now back on par. Meanwhile, Croatia has caught up with Hungary, underlining the region's fluid economic dynamics. Among Central and Eastern European countries, only Lithuania (87% of the EU average), the Czech Republic, and Slovenia (both at 91%) rank higher than Poland.

The wealthiest nations in the EU remain the usual suspects – Luxembourg and Ireland, both of which continue to top the GDP per capita rankings due to their favorable tax environments and heavy presence of multinational corporations. At the other end of the spectrum, Bulgaria still sits at the bottom of the list, though it has made notable progress. In 2015, its GDP per capita was below 50% of the EU average. Now, it has risen to 66%, closing in on the rest of the region.
While GDP rankings provide a snapshot of economic development, demographic data can also paint an important picture of a country’s future – especially in relation to public finances and pensions.

A pension worth saving for?


This week, Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) published new life expectancy tables, which play a direct role in how pensions are calculated for new retirees. For a person reaching the age of 60, the expected remaining lifespan is now 266 months – or just over 22 years. At age 65, the average person can expect to live another 221 months, which translates to roughly 18 and a half years.

These life expectancy estimates are not just academic. When someone retires, Poland’s Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) calculates their monthly pension by dividing the total amount saved in their pension account by the expected number of months they will live, as indicated in these actuarial tables. In other words, the longer you are expected to live, the smaller your monthly pension – even if the total amount saved remains the same.

This year’s update shows a slight increase in life expectancy for both 60- and 65-year-olds – approximately two months more than last year’s figures, or an increase of about 0.9%. Consequently, pensions calculated using the new tables will be around 0.9% lower than they would have been under the previous data.

While the longer life expectancy is, in principle, a positive development – indicating better health outcomes and quality of life – it has immediate financial implications for new retirees. In a system where pensions are calculated as annuities, every additional month lived reduces the monthly payout, unless people manage to save more beforehand.

As Poland continues to edge closer to Western European living standards, these subtle shifts in demographic and economic indicators highlight the balancing act that awaits policymakers – between celebrating improved prosperity and preparing for the fiscal consequences of an ageing population.

Polish housing market cools as secondary market prices stall


Home price growth on Poland’s secondary market slowed sharply at the end of 2024, signaling a potential turning point in the country's post-pandemic property boom. According to a new quarterly report from the National Bank of Poland (NBP), average prices for second-hand homes in the country’s seven largest cities rose by just 0.2% in Q4 compared to the previous quarter – the slowest pace since early 2023, when prices temporarily flatlined.

The data, based on actual transaction prices rather than online listings, paint a more nuanced picture of the market than most commonly cited figures. Listing prices often overstate the real cost of housing – and the NBP estimates that the average difference between asking and final transaction prices was 9.2% in the last quarter of 2024. In Warsaw, that gap widened to over 15% – the largest margin since 2017.
While the headline figure may suggest near-stagnation, regional variation remains significant. Among the seven largest cities, Poznań led the way with a 2.7% quarterly rise in average prices. Wrocław and the Tricity (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Sopot) also saw solid growth of just over 1%, while Kraków recorded a more modest 0.7% increase. At the other end of the spectrum, prices dipped by 0.2% in Łódź and fell more sharply by 1.3% in Warsaw.

Looking at year-on-year changes, the data still show an average increase of over 11% across major cities – but this is largely a legacy of strong price gains recorded earlier in 2024. Recent months indicate a clear cooling trend, particularly in markets like Warsaw, where the high price base and reduced demand are beginning to weigh on momentum.

Finance minister rejects proposal for windfall tax on banks


Finance Minister Domański has dismissed a proposal to impose a windfall tax on banks, distancing himself from a plan put forward last week by Regional Funds and Policy Minister Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz. The proposed levy – aimed at capturing a portion of the banking sector’s recent profits – was intended to help fund Poland’s growing defense spending. However, Domański made it clear that he sees no justification for such a move at this time.

He argued that Poland’s banking sector is already a major contributor to public finances. Banks pay approximately PLN 13 billion (EUR 3 billion) annually in corporate income tax (CIT), and more than EUR 1.4 billion in an existing banking levy. According to Domański, this makes the sector one of the largest single sources of tax revenue for the Polish government.

While he acknowledged that bank profits have been high in recent years, Domański attributed this primarily to elevated interest rates – a temporary factor that, he noted, is expected to fade. With analysts forecasting a cycle of interest rate cuts beginning later this year, the minister suggested that banking profits would naturally decrease in the coming quarters, making a new tax unnecessary.

Domański also pointed out that the Polish state has a direct financial interest in the banking sector’s performance, as it controls more than 50% of the sector’s assets. This means the Treasury not only benefits from tax revenues, but also receives significant income from dividends paid out by banks. According to the Polish Bank Association, institutions are expected to distribute around half of last year’s record profits in dividends – a total of over EUR 4.6 billion. A substantial portion of this sum will flow back into the public purse, either directly to the state or through state-controlled companies like PZU, which holds a majority stake in Bank Pekao SA.

Polish support for euro falls to record low


Public support for adopting the euro in Poland has plummeted to an all-time low, according to a new survey conducted by the Warsaw Enterprise Institute in collaboration with the Ariadna research panel. Just 26% of Poles now say they favor replacing the złoty with the euro, while a resounding 74% remain opposed. This marks a significant decline from 35% support in 2023 and 31% at the start of 2024, continuing a downward trend that reflects growing public skepticism.

The opposition cuts across political and ideological lines. Nearly all respondents who identify as opponents of the European Union reject the euro, as do half of those who describe themselves as EU supporters. The political divide is also stark: only 8% of Law and Justice (PiS) voters back euro adoption, while support among Civic Platform (PO) voters stands at 52% – a slim majority, but still leaving nearly half of the party’s base against the idea. Even among Poland’s most pro-European political camp, enthusiasm for joining the eurozone appears ambivalent at best.
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