Exit polls indicate the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) took first place in Sunday’s local elections in the federal state of Thuringia and is narrowly chasing the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union in Saxony.
According to an exit poll by ZDF, Germany’s public broadcaster, the AfD was on course for 33.5% of the vote compared to 23.4% in 2019, followed by the CDU on 24.5%, up from 21.7%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a populist far-left party that split off from The Left at the turn of the year, were set for third place on 14.5%.
The Social Democrat (SPD), Green and Free Democrat (FDP) parties of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition are set to receive 6.5%, 4% and 1% respectively down from 8.2%, 5.2% and 5% in 2019. Put together, that is less than the Left, which look to have gained 11.5% in these elections.
Meanwhile, in Saxony, the CDU, which has governed Saxony since reunification more than 30 years ago, appeared set to secure 32% of the vote compared to 32.1% in 2019.
But the AfD is hot on their heels with 31.5% in the ZDF exit poll, up from 27.5% in 2019, with BSW in third place with 11.5%.
The SPD gained 7.5% of the vote this year, while the Greens and FDP gained 5% and just 1% respectively. This means the liberal FDP came in last of all the mainstream parties, with the Left ahead of them with 4.5%
In each of the states, only five parties managed to gain seats in the local legislature, according to ZDF’s projections.
Forty-five seats are necessary for a majority in the 88-seat Thuringian legislature, where AfD is expected to take 33 seats. This could possibly mean it could take power in the state if it manages to form a coalition with BSW, which has 14 seats. Although AfD is far-right and BSW is ostensibly far-left, the parties are united by their anti-immigration stance and their unwillingness to maintain Germany’s policy of supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression
The Social Democrat (SPD), Green and Free Democrat (FDP) parties of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-way coalition are set to receive 6.5%, 4% and 1% respectively down from 8.2%, 5.2% and 5% in 2019. Put together, that is less than the Left, which look to have gained 11.5% in these elections.
Meanwhile, in Saxony, the CDU, which has governed Saxony since reunification more than 30 years ago, appeared set to secure 32% of the vote compared to 32.1% in 2019.
But the AfD is hot on their heels with 31.5% in the ZDF exit poll, up from 27.5% in 2019, with BSW in third place with 11.5%.
The SPD gained 7.5% of the vote this year, while the Greens and FDP gained 5% and just 1% respectively. This means the liberal FDP came in last of all the mainstream parties, with the Left ahead of them with 4.5%
Seat distribution and possible coalitions
In each of the states, only five parties managed to gain seats in the local legislature, according to ZDF’s projections.
Forty-five seats are necessary for a majority in the 88-seat Thuringian legislature, where AfD is expected to take 33 seats. This could possibly mean it could take power in the state if it manages to form a coalition with BSW, which has 14 seats. Although AfD is far-right and BSW is ostensibly far-left, the parties are united by their anti-immigration stance and their unwillingness to maintain Germany’s policy of supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression
In Thuringia, CDU is expected to take 24 seats, the Left 11 seats, and SPD 6 seats.
In Saxony, 61 seats are necessary to form a majority in the 120-seat legislature. This means that if the projections stand, CDU (44 seats) could form a coalition with SPD (10 seats) and the Greens (7 seats), since coalitions in local legislatures need not reflect the coalition in the Bundestag. Furthermore, CDU and SPD have several times formed what is known in Germany as a ‘Grand Coalition’ before.
In Saxony, 61 seats are necessary to form a majority in the 120-seat legislature. This means that if the projections stand, CDU (44 seats) could form a coalition with SPD (10 seats) and the Greens (7 seats), since coalitions in local legislatures need not reflect the coalition in the Bundestag. Furthermore, CDU and SPD have several times formed what is known in Germany as a ‘Grand Coalition’ before.
However, this would give the three parties exactly 61 seats. If the projections change as the votes are counted, this extremely thin majority may disappear and give AfD and BSW a chance at forming their own coalition, as they are expected to win 43 and 16 seats respectively.
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