The far-right German party Alternative for Germany (AfD) and a newer and rapidly growing left-wing rival are both recording strong support ahead of regional elections in September seen as a test for the country’s democracy.
The popularity of the AfD, which has been labeled “rightwing extremist” by Germany’s internal security authorities, raises the prospect of a far-right party winning a German election for the first time since 1932.
Three states in the AfD’s heartland east of the country—Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg—will vote in regional elections in September, with the right-wing populists riding high in opinion polls.
Thuringia and Saxony vote on September 1, while voters in Brandenburg go to the polls on September 22. The three account for around 10% of the country’s population, and the vote is seen as a litmus test ahead of federal elections next year.
Opinion polls suggest that the anti-immigration and anti-Islam AfD may secure the most votes in all three regions and could attract as much as 30% of the electorate in Saxony and Thuringia this Sunday, Reuters reports. At the same time, polls give the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, just 5%.
The party is also poised for victory in Brandenburg with the conservatives and the SPD in a race for second.
But while the AfD is riding a wave of national discontent on the back of a knife attack in Solingen in August for which a Muslim asylum seeker has been arrested, another anti-establishment political force also has a strong showing.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new and rapidly rising party created just eight months ago around its eponymous left-wing firebrand, may upset the applecart. The BSW is also skeptical on immigration and, like the AfD, is pro-Moscow and opposed to supporting Ukraine, as well as being anti-EU.
None of the mainstream parties have ruled out working with the BSW, which is leftist economically but socially conservative.
While still minority runners at the national level, in the three former communist states voting next month, the AfD and BSW look likely to jointly take almost half the vote.
A test for the country
In the two states voting on Sunday, opposing parties have agreed to create a “firewall” against the AfD by refusing cooperation in a bid to stem its march, but with national elections slated for 2025, the stakes are rising.
The AfD has played not only on fear of immigration and the risk of Islamic terrorism in the wake of the Solingen attack but has also appealed to disaffected voters east of the country 30 years after reunification. It campaigns on anxiety over the spread of war in Europe, inflation, economic decline, and a rising crime rate, which saw it secure all the eastern states in June’s European elections, polling at 27.5% in Brandenburg.
“But it would be a mistake to relegate the state votes to ‘elections in east Germany’,” Alexander Moritz, a public radio correspondent in Saxony, was quoted by the U.K.’s Guardian newspaper as saying. “They are a test case for the whole of German democracy. Inflation, fear of war, and restrictions on freedom during the pandemic have left many people chronically distressed. For the first time since 1932, rightwing extremists could become the strongest party in a German legislature in a free election.”
Scholz has been spurred to respond to the wake-up call, promising stricter knife laws, accelerated deportations of failed asylum seekers, and tighter migration controls.
But even before next year’s national elections to the Bundestag, September’s ballots will determine the composition of Germany’s upper house, the Bundesrat, which can influence federal legislation.
The upcoming votes have also polarized German society, with thousands taking to the streets earlier this year to protest against the rise of the right after AfD politicians were found to have met neo-Nazi groups to discuss a “master plan” for mass deportations.
Wolfgang Thierse, a former Bundestag president seen as a moral authority in Germany, has supported moves aimed at banning the AfD.
“Our democracy is in a critical state,” The Guardian reported him as saying in January. “Some of this reminds us of events 90 years ago. In 1930, the Nazi party stood at 14 or 15%, and three years later it was in power and had done away with democracy.”
Three states in the AfD’s heartland east of the country—Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg—will vote in regional elections in September, with the right-wing populists riding high in opinion polls.
Thuringia and Saxony vote on September 1, while voters in Brandenburg go to the polls on September 22. The three account for around 10% of the country’s population, and the vote is seen as a litmus test ahead of federal elections next year.
Opinion polls suggest that the anti-immigration and anti-Islam AfD may secure the most votes in all three regions and could attract as much as 30% of the electorate in Saxony and Thuringia this Sunday, Reuters reports. At the same time, polls give the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, just 5%.
The party is also poised for victory in Brandenburg with the conservatives and the SPD in a race for second.
But while the AfD is riding a wave of national discontent on the back of a knife attack in Solingen in August for which a Muslim asylum seeker has been arrested, another anti-establishment political force also has a strong showing.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new and rapidly rising party created just eight months ago around its eponymous left-wing firebrand, may upset the applecart. The BSW is also skeptical on immigration and, like the AfD, is pro-Moscow and opposed to supporting Ukraine, as well as being anti-EU.
None of the mainstream parties have ruled out working with the BSW, which is leftist economically but socially conservative.
While still minority runners at the national level, in the three former communist states voting next month, the AfD and BSW look likely to jointly take almost half the vote.
A test for the country
In the two states voting on Sunday, opposing parties have agreed to create a “firewall” against the AfD by refusing cooperation in a bid to stem its march, but with national elections slated for 2025, the stakes are rising.
The AfD has played not only on fear of immigration and the risk of Islamic terrorism in the wake of the Solingen attack but has also appealed to disaffected voters east of the country 30 years after reunification. It campaigns on anxiety over the spread of war in Europe, inflation, economic decline, and a rising crime rate, which saw it secure all the eastern states in June’s European elections, polling at 27.5% in Brandenburg.
“But it would be a mistake to relegate the state votes to ‘elections in east Germany’,” Alexander Moritz, a public radio correspondent in Saxony, was quoted by the U.K.’s Guardian newspaper as saying. “They are a test case for the whole of German democracy. Inflation, fear of war, and restrictions on freedom during the pandemic have left many people chronically distressed. For the first time since 1932, rightwing extremists could become the strongest party in a German legislature in a free election.”
Scholz has been spurred to respond to the wake-up call, promising stricter knife laws, accelerated deportations of failed asylum seekers, and tighter migration controls.
But even before next year’s national elections to the Bundestag, September’s ballots will determine the composition of Germany’s upper house, the Bundesrat, which can influence federal legislation.
The upcoming votes have also polarized German society, with thousands taking to the streets earlier this year to protest against the rise of the right after AfD politicians were found to have met neo-Nazi groups to discuss a “master plan” for mass deportations.
Wolfgang Thierse, a former Bundestag president seen as a moral authority in Germany, has supported moves aimed at banning the AfD.
“Our democracy is in a critical state,” The Guardian reported him as saying in January. “Some of this reminds us of events 90 years ago. In 1930, the Nazi party stood at 14 or 15%, and three years later it was in power and had done away with democracy.”
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