Ratings agency Fitch has upped its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Poland to 3.0% in its autumn outlook from 2.8%.
The agency also expects 3.6% growth in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points on its previous forecast.
The increase in the Fitch outlook for Poland compared to their spring forecast comes after the unexpectedly high growth of the economy in the second quarter of 2024, when GDP rose by 3.2%.
The agency said that the new government’s more relaxed fiscal policy and the raising of the general government deficit target also contributed to their upward revision of the forecast.
Given the strong Polish wage growth, taxation policy, increases in inflation and the upward revision of 2025 economic growth, Fitch believes that “the central bank is likely to keep the main interest rate at 5.75 percent, and lower it by a total of 50 basis points in the second half of 2025.”
The agency predicts Polish interest rates will fall to 4.0% by the end of 2026.
Fitch Ratings revised up its global economic growth forecast for this year to 2.7%, from 2.6%. However, in 2025 they see global growth falling to 2.5% on the back of a sluggish U.S. economy.
The increase in the Fitch outlook for Poland compared to their spring forecast comes after the unexpectedly high growth of the economy in the second quarter of 2024, when GDP rose by 3.2%.
The agency said that the new government’s more relaxed fiscal policy and the raising of the general government deficit target also contributed to their upward revision of the forecast.
Given the strong Polish wage growth, taxation policy, increases in inflation and the upward revision of 2025 economic growth, Fitch believes that “the central bank is likely to keep the main interest rate at 5.75 percent, and lower it by a total of 50 basis points in the second half of 2025.”
The agency predicts Polish interest rates will fall to 4.0% by the end of 2026.
Fitch Ratings revised up its global economic growth forecast for this year to 2.7%, from 2.6%. However, in 2025 they see global growth falling to 2.5% on the back of a sluggish U.S. economy.
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