French voters cast their ballots on Sunday in the first round of a snap parliamentary election as the country faces a historic turning point.
These elections have the potential to usher in France’s first far-right government since World War II, signaling a significant political shift at the core of the European Union.
President Emmanuel Macron stunned the country when he called the vote after his centrist alliance was crushed in European elections this month by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). Her eurosceptic, anti-immigrant party, long considered a pariah, is now closer to power than ever before.
Polls opened at 0600 GMT (local time), closing at 1600 GMT in small towns and cities, and at 1800 GMT in the bigger cities. The first exit polls and seat projections for the decisive second round, a week later, are expected then.
But even before midday, the RN had cause for optimism as three of their candidates had already qualified for the second round in the country’s overseas territories of Martinique and Guadeloupe, the U.K.’s Daily Telegraph reported.
However, the electoral system can make it hard to estimate the precise distribution of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, and the final outcome will not be known until the end of voting on July 7.
Marine Le Pen remains upbeat about the chances of her far-right party gaining power. “We are going to win an absolute majority,” she said in an interview on Wednesday, predicting that her protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would be France’s next prime minister.
If the RN does win an absolute majority, French diplomacy could be headed for an unprecedented period of turbulence. Macron, who has said he will continue his presidency until the end of his term in 2027, and Bardella could be jostling for the right to speak for France.
France has had three periods of ‘cohabitation’ – when the president and government are from opposite political camps – in its post-war history, but none with such radically divergent worldviews competing at the top of the state. France usually has a president and prime minister from the same camp, as National Assembly elections are traditionally held shortly after presidential ballots so the results reflect the same national mood. Macron’s snap-election gamble may usher in Paris’s first cohabitation leadership for 22 years.
“It will mark the beginning of a new way of governing and the end of the presidential agenda,” Al Jazeera quoted Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Institute for European Perspective and Security Studies, a think-tank, as saying. “Macronism has already almost collapsed and it will exit the election totally wiped out,” he predicted.
Bardella has already indicated he would challenge Macron on global issues. France could lurch from being a pillar of the EU to a thorn in its side, demanding a rebate of the French contribution to the EU budget, clashing with Brussels over European Commission jobs, and reversing Macron's calls for greater EU unity and assertiveness on defense.
A clear RN victory would also bring uncertainty as to where France stands on the Russia-Ukraine war. Le Pen has a history of pro-Russian sentiment, and while the party now says it would help Ukraine defend itself against Russian invaders, it has also set out red lines, such as refusing to provide long-range missiles.
Split vote likely to favor RN, says expert
Opinion polls have suggested the RN has a comfortable lead of 33-36% of the popular vote, with a hastily assembled left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, in second place on 28-31% and Macron's centrist alliance in third on 20-23%.
The New Popular Front includes a wide range of parties, from the moderate center-left to the hard-left, eurosceptic, anti-NATO party France Unbowed, led by one of Macron’s most vitriolic opponents, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Macron has tried to persuade centrist formations to rally round his Renaissance party to counter the more extreme factions, warning that a win for either the National Rally or the New Popular Front could result in “civil war” in the country. .
How the poll numbers will translate into seats in the National Assembly is hard to predict because of how the election works, said Vincent Martigny, professor of political science at the University of Nice and the École Polytechnique.
Candidates can be elected in the first round if they win an absolute majority of votes in their constituency, but that is rare. Most constituencies will need a second round involving all candidates who received votes from at least 12.5% of registered voters in the first round. The top scorer wins.
“If you have a very high level of participation, you might have a third or fourth party getting into the struggle. So then, of course, there’s a risk of split voting, and we know that the split vote favors the National Rally,” said Martigny.
For decades, as the far right steadily gained popularity, voters and parties who did not support it would unite against it whenever it edged closer to national power. However, that may not hold true this time.
Martigny said no one knew whether candidates from Macron's camp would consider dropping out of the second round to give rivals from the left a chance of beating the RN, or the reverse. French daily Le Monde reported that Macron planned to hold talks with his partners on Sunday to discuss such strategic steps ahead of the second round. Macron himself cast his vote in the northern seaside town of Le Touquet on Sunday in an election that early figures suggested had a higher turnout than the last legislative ballot two years ago. The Interior Ministry put the turnout at 25.9 percent by midday against 18.43 at the same time in 2022, meaning that one in four of the 49.3 registered voters had cast their ballots.
Le Pen and Bardella have sought to make their party’s image more acceptable to the mainstream, for example by denouncing antisemitism. Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder and long-term leader of the RN’s forerunner, had a history of overtly antisemitic comments.
But critics say the RN’s courting of Jews is just a cover allowing it to deny accusations of racism while constantly stigmatizing Muslims and foreigners. Immigration remains a key electoral issue, particularly in the south of the country, Al Jazeera reported.
“They call us second-class citizens because we have two citizenships – they will favor those who are born French, meaning looking at skin color, religion, etc … And that’s what we don’t want. That will put people like us in an uncomfortable position,” one voter told the news service.
President Emmanuel Macron stunned the country when he called the vote after his centrist alliance was crushed in European elections this month by Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). Her eurosceptic, anti-immigrant party, long considered a pariah, is now closer to power than ever before.
Polls opened at 0600 GMT (local time), closing at 1600 GMT in small towns and cities, and at 1800 GMT in the bigger cities. The first exit polls and seat projections for the decisive second round, a week later, are expected then.
But even before midday, the RN had cause for optimism as three of their candidates had already qualified for the second round in the country’s overseas territories of Martinique and Guadeloupe, the U.K.’s Daily Telegraph reported.
However, the electoral system can make it hard to estimate the precise distribution of seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, and the final outcome will not be known until the end of voting on July 7.
Marine Le Pen remains upbeat about the chances of her far-right party gaining power. “We are going to win an absolute majority,” she said in an interview on Wednesday, predicting that her protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, would be France’s next prime minister.
If the RN does win an absolute majority, French diplomacy could be headed for an unprecedented period of turbulence. Macron, who has said he will continue his presidency until the end of his term in 2027, and Bardella could be jostling for the right to speak for France.
France has had three periods of ‘cohabitation’ – when the president and government are from opposite political camps – in its post-war history, but none with such radically divergent worldviews competing at the top of the state. France usually has a president and prime minister from the same camp, as National Assembly elections are traditionally held shortly after presidential ballots so the results reflect the same national mood. Macron’s snap-election gamble may usher in Paris’s first cohabitation leadership for 22 years.
“It will mark the beginning of a new way of governing and the end of the presidential agenda,” Al Jazeera quoted Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Institute for European Perspective and Security Studies, a think-tank, as saying. “Macronism has already almost collapsed and it will exit the election totally wiped out,” he predicted.
Bardella has already indicated he would challenge Macron on global issues. France could lurch from being a pillar of the EU to a thorn in its side, demanding a rebate of the French contribution to the EU budget, clashing with Brussels over European Commission jobs, and reversing Macron's calls for greater EU unity and assertiveness on defense.
A clear RN victory would also bring uncertainty as to where France stands on the Russia-Ukraine war. Le Pen has a history of pro-Russian sentiment, and while the party now says it would help Ukraine defend itself against Russian invaders, it has also set out red lines, such as refusing to provide long-range missiles.
Split vote likely to favor RN, says expert
Opinion polls have suggested the RN has a comfortable lead of 33-36% of the popular vote, with a hastily assembled left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, in second place on 28-31% and Macron's centrist alliance in third on 20-23%.
The New Popular Front includes a wide range of parties, from the moderate center-left to the hard-left, eurosceptic, anti-NATO party France Unbowed, led by one of Macron’s most vitriolic opponents, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Macron has tried to persuade centrist formations to rally round his Renaissance party to counter the more extreme factions, warning that a win for either the National Rally or the New Popular Front could result in “civil war” in the country. .
How the poll numbers will translate into seats in the National Assembly is hard to predict because of how the election works, said Vincent Martigny, professor of political science at the University of Nice and the École Polytechnique.
Candidates can be elected in the first round if they win an absolute majority of votes in their constituency, but that is rare. Most constituencies will need a second round involving all candidates who received votes from at least 12.5% of registered voters in the first round. The top scorer wins.
“If you have a very high level of participation, you might have a third or fourth party getting into the struggle. So then, of course, there’s a risk of split voting, and we know that the split vote favors the National Rally,” said Martigny.
For decades, as the far right steadily gained popularity, voters and parties who did not support it would unite against it whenever it edged closer to national power. However, that may not hold true this time.
Martigny said no one knew whether candidates from Macron's camp would consider dropping out of the second round to give rivals from the left a chance of beating the RN, or the reverse. French daily Le Monde reported that Macron planned to hold talks with his partners on Sunday to discuss such strategic steps ahead of the second round. Macron himself cast his vote in the northern seaside town of Le Touquet on Sunday in an election that early figures suggested had a higher turnout than the last legislative ballot two years ago. The Interior Ministry put the turnout at 25.9 percent by midday against 18.43 at the same time in 2022, meaning that one in four of the 49.3 registered voters had cast their ballots.
Le Pen and Bardella have sought to make their party’s image more acceptable to the mainstream, for example by denouncing antisemitism. Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder and long-term leader of the RN’s forerunner, had a history of overtly antisemitic comments.
But critics say the RN’s courting of Jews is just a cover allowing it to deny accusations of racism while constantly stigmatizing Muslims and foreigners. Immigration remains a key electoral issue, particularly in the south of the country, Al Jazeera reported.
“They call us second-class citizens because we have two citizenships – they will favor those who are born French, meaning looking at skin color, religion, etc … And that’s what we don’t want. That will put people like us in an uncomfortable position,” one voter told the news service.
Source: Reuters, TVP World, The Telegraph, Al Jazeera
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