During an appearance on Estonian Public Channel ETV’s program “Välisilm,” security expert Rainer Saks expressed his belief that Poland’s decision not to shoot down a Russian missile breaching its airspace was a misstep. Saks emphasized the necessity of conveying a strong signal to the Kremlin that such intrusions would be met with defensive action, asserting that failure to do so may embolden Russia to act with impunity.
In the early hours of Sunday, a Russian cruise missile, intended for Ukraine, entered Polish airspace, lingering for 39 seconds. Polish authorities assured the public that the situation was under control, with the defense minister affirming that had there been any indication of a threat to Polish territory, the missile would have been intercepted.
Nonetheless, Rainer Saks, the former head of the Office of the President of Estonia, the Information Office, the one-time chancellor of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, suggested that Poland could have effectively communicated its stance to Russia by shooting down the missile.
“The destroyers were in the air. In fact, the decision was taken not to shoot down the missile. I consider that a mistake. It would have been better if it had been shot down as soon as it entered Polish airspace. However, I think it would have been even more beneficial, if it had been said that we are now going to shoot down missiles coming from Ukrainian territory,” Saks said.
“Of course, that has to be agreed with the Ukrainians. I think it would help to avoid further incidents. At the moment, Russia has seen that the reaction to this is a little bit uncertain. It may encourage [Russia] to carry on in the same way or encourage it to act recklessly,” he added.
Saks said that if such a pattern of no-response to Russian incursions persists, it would only further embolden Putin to engage in such violations of territorial sovereignty.
Attacking NATO now would be disastrous for Russia
Saks was also asked about the possibility of Russia launching an assault on NATO and the potential timeline for such an eventuality, especially if it were to successfully seize control of Ukraine and its military assets.
“Even after [a potential] conquest of Ukraine, it would be difficult to attack immediately. It would take decades to integrate [military resources] in this way, in a situation where the territory has been occupied in the way they are doing now. A conquest in itself would take a long time. However, it would also require a really huge army to control this hostile territory, to somehow pacify it, to integrate it, and that would not be an easy process,” he said.
Nonetheless, Rainer Saks, the former head of the Office of the President of Estonia, the Information Office, the one-time chancellor of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, suggested that Poland could have effectively communicated its stance to Russia by shooting down the missile.
“The destroyers were in the air. In fact, the decision was taken not to shoot down the missile. I consider that a mistake. It would have been better if it had been shot down as soon as it entered Polish airspace. However, I think it would have been even more beneficial, if it had been said that we are now going to shoot down missiles coming from Ukrainian territory,” Saks said.
“Of course, that has to be agreed with the Ukrainians. I think it would help to avoid further incidents. At the moment, Russia has seen that the reaction to this is a little bit uncertain. It may encourage [Russia] to carry on in the same way or encourage it to act recklessly,” he added.
Saks said that if such a pattern of no-response to Russian incursions persists, it would only further embolden Putin to engage in such violations of territorial sovereignty.
Attacking NATO now would be disastrous for Russia
Saks was also asked about the possibility of Russia launching an assault on NATO and the potential timeline for such an eventuality, especially if it were to successfully seize control of Ukraine and its military assets.
“Even after [a potential] conquest of Ukraine, it would be difficult to attack immediately. It would take decades to integrate [military resources] in this way, in a situation where the territory has been occupied in the way they are doing now. A conquest in itself would take a long time. However, it would also require a really huge army to control this hostile territory, to somehow pacify it, to integrate it, and that would not be an easy process,” he said.
‘‘I think that is also the reason why the full-scale invasion was not launched in 2014,” he added.
Saks doubts that Russia is currently inclined towards engaging in a war with NATO. “It has been seen time and again that Russia does not want to give any signal that it is crossing borders. But the point is that if it can put pressure on NATO, that NATO itself will start to retreat, and this will start to affect the strategic position, so Russia will gain more of the strategic initiative,” he said.
“I would still maintain that a military conflict with NATO now would be disastrous for Russia,” Saks said.
Nonetheless, he maintains his belief that NATO stands prepared to respond if Russia were to initiate military action.
He also pointed out that Russia’s reluctance to engage in direct military conflict with NATO is influenced by the genuine threat of further escalation.
“It would be very difficult to contain the escalation of this conflict. It is not possible to contain it within any particular space or certain conventions. It will escalate very quickly into a nuclear war because both sides will be forced to respond aggressively to one other,” Saks said.
Saks doubts that Russia is currently inclined towards engaging in a war with NATO. “It has been seen time and again that Russia does not want to give any signal that it is crossing borders. But the point is that if it can put pressure on NATO, that NATO itself will start to retreat, and this will start to affect the strategic position, so Russia will gain more of the strategic initiative,” he said.
“I would still maintain that a military conflict with NATO now would be disastrous for Russia,” Saks said.
Nonetheless, he maintains his belief that NATO stands prepared to respond if Russia were to initiate military action.
He also pointed out that Russia’s reluctance to engage in direct military conflict with NATO is influenced by the genuine threat of further escalation.
“It would be very difficult to contain the escalation of this conflict. It is not possible to contain it within any particular space or certain conventions. It will escalate very quickly into a nuclear war because both sides will be forced to respond aggressively to one other,” Saks said.
Source: ERR, TVP World
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