European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius has warned that Russia might “attack” an EU country in “five years or less”.
Speaking at the EU Security Forum in Warsaw on Wednesday, alongside Polish defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Kubilius said that Russian President Vladimir Putin “could be tempted” to use Russia’s military power against a European state.
He said: “Intelligence services report: Russia is getting ready to challenge NATO Article 5 by 2030.
“In five years or less, Russia could be willing and able to attack one or more EU countries,” he added.
Echoing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent statement, Kubilius also said that the EU “must reach a state of readiness that will deter Putin.”
Von der Leyen stated in a speech to the European Parliament in March that “Putin has proven time and again that he is a hostile neighbor. He cannot be trusted, he can only be deterred,” she said.
Kubilius pointed to Poland as an example for the rest of European countries when it comes to defense preparedness.
“This year, in 2025, Poland will spend 4.7 per cent of its GDP on defense. And Poland is planning to double its military to half a million soldiers. More countries should follow the Polish example,” he said.
Kosiniak-Kamysz thanked the European Commission’s first defence chief for creating the White Paper, where key proposals include linking Ukraine’s security to Europe’s, boosting aid, and integrating industries via a €150 billion loan initiative.
The document also suggests raising EU defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, addressing gaps in tanks and tech, starting shield projects, and boosting industry with less bureaucracy.
The Polish defense minister emphasized that the forum’s key takeaway should be the rapid implementation of the White Paper’s provisions.
He said: “Intelligence services report: Russia is getting ready to challenge NATO Article 5 by 2030.
“In five years or less, Russia could be willing and able to attack one or more EU countries,” he added.
Echoing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent statement, Kubilius also said that the EU “must reach a state of readiness that will deter Putin.”
Von der Leyen stated in a speech to the European Parliament in March that “Putin has proven time and again that he is a hostile neighbor. He cannot be trusted, he can only be deterred,” she said.
Kubilius pointed to Poland as an example for the rest of European countries when it comes to defense preparedness.
“This year, in 2025, Poland will spend 4.7 per cent of its GDP on defense. And Poland is planning to double its military to half a million soldiers. More countries should follow the Polish example,” he said.
During the forum, Kubilius pointed to two defense initiatives that will “increase defence spending and ramp up defence production”–the “White Paper on European Defence” and the “Readiness 2030” plan.Honoured to present the White Paper for European Defence-Readiness 2030 🇪🇺 and answer questions at the EU Security Forum in Warsaw, Poland 🇵🇱
— Andrius Kubilius (@KubiliusA) April 2, 2025
My remarks: https://t.co/qHJCHZ6b92
Follow 🔴 live: https://t.co/lOPGme6LkU@EU_Commission @POLAND25EU @EUinPL pic.twitter.com/d1wjobB0m6
Kosiniak-Kamysz thanked the European Commission’s first defence chief for creating the White Paper, where key proposals include linking Ukraine’s security to Europe’s, boosting aid, and integrating industries via a €150 billion loan initiative.
The document also suggests raising EU defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, addressing gaps in tanks and tech, starting shield projects, and boosting industry with less bureaucracy.
The Polish defense minister emphasized that the forum’s key takeaway should be the rapid implementation of the White Paper’s provisions.
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