Europe cannot simply lament how unstable the world has become or dwell on the loss of the order that ensured its peace and prosperity for more than seven decades. The White Paper on European Defence – Readiness 2030, published by the European Commission on 19 March, takes an active approach to shaping Europe's onsetting emancipation in security and defense.
Expectations were high. For the first time, the EU has a commissioner solely focused on defense. Andrius Kubilius was tasked by Ursula von der Leyen to assess, within 100 days, what the EU must do to prepare for "the most extreme military contingencies"—including a potential Russian attack on an EU member, without immediate or sufficient US support.
Europe is under pressure. The latter half of this decade seems to be crucial for the development of the next world order. If the EU wants to survive in its current form, it must act resolutely and fast.
Founded on economic cooperation and democracy, the EU now faces the challenge of strengthening its military resilience. Transforming it into a defense-oriented organization within a single political term is a near-impossible feat. Yet, by February 2025, EU leaders fully grasped the urgency—especially after US Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech in Munich and the shocking Trump-Zelensky Oval Office meeting.
European leaders are making critical defense decisions, including partnerships beyond the EU. Their first major move, ReArm Europe, signals their commitment to boosting defense investments.
To build independent military capabilities within this decade, Europe must secure arms production funding. Less than three weeks after Vance’s Munich speech, Von der Leyen announced that the EU would enable Member States to invest €800 billion in defense over four years, increasing annual EU defense spending by 60 %, from €326 billion in 2024 to over half a trillion Euros.
However, only €150 billion will come from outside of Member States’ budgets, borrowed by the European Commission for specific defense projects. While this surpasses the EU’s Covid-19 financial response, national decisions on actually increasing defense spending will remain the only path to success.
The Commission has done a lot to frontload the necessary investments. ReArm Europe allows Member States to bypass debt restrictions for military spending, more money will be available at the commercial market for defense industry to invest, the European Investment Bank will loosen its rules to provide even more resources. But real political action is needed at the national level. Some countries, like Poland and the Baltics, plan to raise defense spending to and over 3.5% of GDP. For others, especially in southern Europe or with populist governments like Slovakia, this will be politically difficult. There’s a risk that, instead of real military investment, some countries will inflate figures through dual-use projects with minimal defense impact.
The White Paper reaffirms that NATO remains the primary tool for maintaining peace and security in Europe, and European efforts will focus on strengthening it. Military capabilities belong to Member States, which decide how to deploy them—whether nationally, through the UN, the EU, or NATO. The stronger the individual military forces of NATO and EU members, the stronger both organizations become. Therefore, European countries investing in defense through the EU are directly contributing to NATO’s reinforcement—aligning with U.S. demands over the past 15 years.
ReArm Europe provides a framework for investment, while the White Paper guides spending to maximize impact. Prioritizing key military capabilities and coordinating procurement will increase value for money and save costs. The list of priority areas for military capabilities development is undisputed: integrated air and missile defense, artillery systems, ammunition and missiles, drones and anti-drone systems, military mobility, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum, cyber and electronic warfare, and strategic enablers. They all make perfect sense for a stronger, more ready Europe.
Yet, EU joint procurement has been inefficient. Few PESCO or European Defence Agency projects have delivered results, even after Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. The White Paper lacks a clear plan to accelerate large-scale defense acquisitions. The Commission should not only facilitate funding but also take on a coordinating role to lead specific military capability projects. Speed is critical—European must swiftly finalize defense contracts to ensure early deliveries of military equipment.
The White Paper and its implementation focus on strengthening the European defense industry. The Commission aims to remove excessive restrictions and create a unified European defense market. Its efforts to enhance links between national defense markets within the EU are welcome, but the boldness of proposed reforms will be key.
Regulatory changes in the defense industry take time—something Europe lacks. Reforms must be swift. Consolidating proposals into a Defence Omnibus risks delays and political deadlock. Implementing joint defense projects and harmonizing regulations across the diverse legal and administrative systems of multiple Member States is inherently complex and time-consuming . Such initiatives may encounter resistance from national bureaucracies and established vested interests within national defense industries. Grouping legislative proposals into several packages could ensure simpler reforms progress without being stalled by more complex ones.
The Commission must act promptly on politically challenging reforms, particularly in defense procurement. Talks on streamlining administrative barriers, such as eliminating import and export licenses within the EU and with Ukraine, should begin immediately.
Dialogue with industry is vital but insufficient. The EU must also engage actively with Member States, as they hold decision-making power. While industry prioritizes capacity and profits, governments focus on employment, political implications of mergers, and sovereignty concerns. Bridging this gap requires a strong mediator—the European Commission is well-placed for this role, but it will be challenging to push for more standardization and prioritize European supply chains’ stability over national self-sufficiency in defense.
The outcome of the war in Ukraine will significantly impact European security. The White Paper rightly stresses the need to continue supporting Ukraine, given the uncertainty surrounding peace talks and Russia’s unwillingness to de-escalate its aggression.
Ukraine offers vital value to the EU, as its armed forces gain crucial experience fighting Russian forces. This experience is key for determining the correct military requirements within the EU (and NATO), ensuring these capabilities are ready for a potential war with Russia in both quantity and quality.
Closer integration between the European and Ukrainian defense industries is essential for enabling the EU to mobilize a much needed additional production capacity. Ukraine’s defense industry will reach €35 billion in manufacturing capacity by 2025, providing a significant boost to Europe after a potential peace deal has been struck and kept. Ukraine’s rapid production growth, especially in drones, can inform the steps towards development of the European defense sector’s capacity.
Strengthening ties with Ukraine’s defense industry and accelerating its EU integration will bolster both European defense and provide security guarantees for Ukraine against future Russian attacks.
The White Paper on European Defence and the ReArm Europe initiative represent a significant and necessary shift towards bolstering the continent's security and defense capabilities. Driven by a volatile global landscape and the potential for diminished U.S. support, the EU is actively seeking to emancipate itself in this crucial domain.
While the ambitious funding targets and strategic priorities outlined in the White Paper demonstrate a clear commitment, the true test lies in the effective implementation, predominantly at the national level. Overcoming political hurdles, streamlining procurement processes, and fostering a robust European defense industry, in close collaboration with Ukraine, will be paramount. The coming years will determine whether the EU can translate the White Paper into tangible military strength, ensuring its persistence and influence in the evolving world order.
Europe is under pressure. The latter half of this decade seems to be crucial for the development of the next world order. If the EU wants to survive in its current form, it must act resolutely and fast.
Founded on economic cooperation and democracy, the EU now faces the challenge of strengthening its military resilience. Transforming it into a defense-oriented organization within a single political term is a near-impossible feat. Yet, by February 2025, EU leaders fully grasped the urgency—especially after US Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech in Munich and the shocking Trump-Zelensky Oval Office meeting.
European leaders are making critical defense decisions, including partnerships beyond the EU. Their first major move, ReArm Europe, signals their commitment to boosting defense investments.
ReArm Europe: Funding European defense
To build independent military capabilities within this decade, Europe must secure arms production funding. Less than three weeks after Vance’s Munich speech, Von der Leyen announced that the EU would enable Member States to invest €800 billion in defense over four years, increasing annual EU defense spending by 60 %, from €326 billion in 2024 to over half a trillion Euros.
However, only €150 billion will come from outside of Member States’ budgets, borrowed by the European Commission for specific defense projects. While this surpasses the EU’s Covid-19 financial response, national decisions on actually increasing defense spending will remain the only path to success.
The Commission has done a lot to frontload the necessary investments. ReArm Europe allows Member States to bypass debt restrictions for military spending, more money will be available at the commercial market for defense industry to invest, the European Investment Bank will loosen its rules to provide even more resources. But real political action is needed at the national level. Some countries, like Poland and the Baltics, plan to raise defense spending to and over 3.5% of GDP. For others, especially in southern Europe or with populist governments like Slovakia, this will be politically difficult. There’s a risk that, instead of real military investment, some countries will inflate figures through dual-use projects with minimal defense impact.
Capabilities, capabilities, capabilities
The White Paper reaffirms that NATO remains the primary tool for maintaining peace and security in Europe, and European efforts will focus on strengthening it. Military capabilities belong to Member States, which decide how to deploy them—whether nationally, through the UN, the EU, or NATO. The stronger the individual military forces of NATO and EU members, the stronger both organizations become. Therefore, European countries investing in defense through the EU are directly contributing to NATO’s reinforcement—aligning with U.S. demands over the past 15 years.
ReArm Europe provides a framework for investment, while the White Paper guides spending to maximize impact. Prioritizing key military capabilities and coordinating procurement will increase value for money and save costs. The list of priority areas for military capabilities development is undisputed: integrated air and missile defense, artillery systems, ammunition and missiles, drones and anti-drone systems, military mobility, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum, cyber and electronic warfare, and strategic enablers. They all make perfect sense for a stronger, more ready Europe.
Yet, EU joint procurement has been inefficient. Few PESCO or European Defence Agency projects have delivered results, even after Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. The White Paper lacks a clear plan to accelerate large-scale defense acquisitions. The Commission should not only facilitate funding but also take on a coordinating role to lead specific military capability projects. Speed is critical—European must swiftly finalize defense contracts to ensure early deliveries of military equipment.
Defense industry as the key to success
The White Paper and its implementation focus on strengthening the European defense industry. The Commission aims to remove excessive restrictions and create a unified European defense market. Its efforts to enhance links between national defense markets within the EU are welcome, but the boldness of proposed reforms will be key.
Regulatory changes in the defense industry take time—something Europe lacks. Reforms must be swift. Consolidating proposals into a Defence Omnibus risks delays and political deadlock. Implementing joint defense projects and harmonizing regulations across the diverse legal and administrative systems of multiple Member States is inherently complex and time-consuming . Such initiatives may encounter resistance from national bureaucracies and established vested interests within national defense industries. Grouping legislative proposals into several packages could ensure simpler reforms progress without being stalled by more complex ones.
The Commission must act promptly on politically challenging reforms, particularly in defense procurement. Talks on streamlining administrative barriers, such as eliminating import and export licenses within the EU and with Ukraine, should begin immediately.
Dialogue with industry is vital but insufficient. The EU must also engage actively with Member States, as they hold decision-making power. While industry prioritizes capacity and profits, governments focus on employment, political implications of mergers, and sovereignty concerns. Bridging this gap requires a strong mediator—the European Commission is well-placed for this role, but it will be challenging to push for more standardization and prioritize European supply chains’ stability over national self-sufficiency in defense.
Involvement of Ukraine is a wild card
The outcome of the war in Ukraine will significantly impact European security. The White Paper rightly stresses the need to continue supporting Ukraine, given the uncertainty surrounding peace talks and Russia’s unwillingness to de-escalate its aggression.
Ukraine offers vital value to the EU, as its armed forces gain crucial experience fighting Russian forces. This experience is key for determining the correct military requirements within the EU (and NATO), ensuring these capabilities are ready for a potential war with Russia in both quantity and quality.
Closer integration between the European and Ukrainian defense industries is essential for enabling the EU to mobilize a much needed additional production capacity. Ukraine’s defense industry will reach €35 billion in manufacturing capacity by 2025, providing a significant boost to Europe after a potential peace deal has been struck and kept. Ukraine’s rapid production growth, especially in drones, can inform the steps towards development of the European defense sector’s capacity.
Strengthening ties with Ukraine’s defense industry and accelerating its EU integration will bolster both European defense and provide security guarantees for Ukraine against future Russian attacks.
The White Paper on European Defence and the ReArm Europe initiative represent a significant and necessary shift towards bolstering the continent's security and defense capabilities. Driven by a volatile global landscape and the potential for diminished U.S. support, the EU is actively seeking to emancipate itself in this crucial domain.
While the ambitious funding targets and strategic priorities outlined in the White Paper demonstrate a clear commitment, the true test lies in the effective implementation, predominantly at the national level. Overcoming political hurdles, streamlining procurement processes, and fostering a robust European defense industry, in close collaboration with Ukraine, will be paramount. The coming years will determine whether the EU can translate the White Paper into tangible military strength, ensuring its persistence and influence in the evolving world order.
