It takes little reading between the lines to glean that the Trump administration and its many supporters believe that when it comes to the war, Ukraine is the loser and should make peace before Russia steamrolls it into rubble.
This line of thinking could well have influenced Trump’s decision to suspend weapons supplies to Ukraine as a way strong-arming Kyiv to sit down with Moscow.
But the suspension comes not as Ukraine faces an imminent steamrollering but just as cracks and fissures in Russia appear to be spreading and widening.
It is true that, for the most part, Ukraine’s armed forces remain on the back foot, and have in recent months been forced to give up territory, yet they have defied the odds and remain in the fight.
For Russia, however, the war has devolved from disaster to catastrophe, and, unless there is a dramatic and sudden change of fortunes for its armed forces, it could well get even worse.
But the suspension comes not as Ukraine faces an imminent steamrollering but just as cracks and fissures in Russia appear to be spreading and widening.
It is true that, for the most part, Ukraine’s armed forces remain on the back foot, and have in recent months been forced to give up territory, yet they have defied the odds and remain in the fight.
For Russia, however, the war has devolved from disaster to catastrophe, and, unless there is a dramatic and sudden change of fortunes for its armed forces, it could well get even worse.
Russia pays the price
Although Moscow keeps casualty figures a closely guarded secret, Mediazona, an independent media group, estimates that the war has now claimed at least 165,000 Russian lives, with last year alone accounting for 100,000 as the Russian advance dissolved into piecemeal attacks conducted against well-entrenched opponents.
Mediazona makes no mention of the hundreds of thousands of wounded Russian soldiers, many of whom will require extensive and budget-draining health care.
In early March, the Institute for Study of War (ISW), a U.S-based think tank, wrote that “Ukrainian forces, enabled by essential U.S. assistance, are inflicting unsustainable losses on Russian forces while holding them to marginal gains.”
This seems to make clear that Russia, despite its large population, lacks the endless supply of human capital, which many believe it has, to funnel into the slaughterhouse.
The word “unsustainable” also appears in another ISW report from March 3 in reference to Russian recruitment policies. Russians willing to sign up can now get a one-off payment of around $4,400, which, while not a massive sum, becomes an apparently unbearable financial cost when remembering that Russia needs to maintain a fighting force of around 620,000 in the battlefields of Ukraine and western Russia.
This, along with the payments to wounded soldiers and to the families of the bereaved, have piled more pressure on Russia’s creaking economy.
Mediazona makes no mention of the hundreds of thousands of wounded Russian soldiers, many of whom will require extensive and budget-draining health care.
In early March, the Institute for Study of War (ISW), a U.S-based think tank, wrote that “Ukrainian forces, enabled by essential U.S. assistance, are inflicting unsustainable losses on Russian forces while holding them to marginal gains.”
This seems to make clear that Russia, despite its large population, lacks the endless supply of human capital, which many believe it has, to funnel into the slaughterhouse.
The word “unsustainable” also appears in another ISW report from March 3 in reference to Russian recruitment policies. Russians willing to sign up can now get a one-off payment of around $4,400, which, while not a massive sum, becomes an apparently unbearable financial cost when remembering that Russia needs to maintain a fighting force of around 620,000 in the battlefields of Ukraine and western Russia.
This, along with the payments to wounded soldiers and to the families of the bereaved, have piled more pressure on Russia’s creaking economy.
Economic collapse?
According to General Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s highly respected intelligence chief, the war is costing Russia $1 billion a day and could trigger a collapse later this year of an economy already hugely distorted by defense accounting for around 41% of government expenditure.
Then there is the fact that all this blood and money had failed to win much on the battlefield.
Estimates by the Ukrainian open-source intelligence project DeepState have found that since February 2022, Russian forces have captured and maintained control over 68,400 square kilometers, but over 60,000 square kilometers of that territory was taken in 2022-2023.
The Insider, a news analysis website, said that Russia has been conducting a “grinding offensive” since August 2023 which, despite the huge expense in blood and material, has failed to break the Ukrainian line or capture a significant amount of territory.
“At the current pace of advance, it would take the Kremlin more than two years to fully capture the Donetsk Region, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine still control over 8,000 square kilometers,” it wrote.
Then there is the fact that all this blood and money had failed to win much on the battlefield.
Estimates by the Ukrainian open-source intelligence project DeepState have found that since February 2022, Russian forces have captured and maintained control over 68,400 square kilometers, but over 60,000 square kilometers of that territory was taken in 2022-2023.
The Insider, a news analysis website, said that Russia has been conducting a “grinding offensive” since August 2023 which, despite the huge expense in blood and material, has failed to break the Ukrainian line or capture a significant amount of territory.
“At the current pace of advance, it would take the Kremlin more than two years to fully capture the Donetsk Region, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine still control over 8,000 square kilometers,” it wrote.
Critical failings
All of this demonstrates that the war has been something of a disaster for Russia. It is worth remembering that when Putin launched it, it was supposed to be so short it wouldn’t even need to be called a war or an invasion. The “special military operation” was supposed to be short, sharp and relatively bloodless.
Russian troops would take Kyiv, decapitate the Ukrainian government and replace Zelenskyy with somebody far more sympathetic to Moscow’s concerns. All over in a few days, or at the most, a week or two.
It has fallen short of this of this objective by a million miles and exposed critical failings in the Russian armed forces, be it their training, equipment, logistics and command structure.
An essay on the war published in January by the Centre for European Policy Analysis said Ukraine is demonstrating “superior performances across multiple domains and shows no sign of imminent collapse.”
“The only pathway to Russian victory lies in undermining Western resolve and fostering the illusion of Russian strength,” it concluded.
That is why the timing of Trump’s decision to suspend arms, it appears, could not have been worse.
Russian troops would take Kyiv, decapitate the Ukrainian government and replace Zelenskyy with somebody far more sympathetic to Moscow’s concerns. All over in a few days, or at the most, a week or two.
It has fallen short of this of this objective by a million miles and exposed critical failings in the Russian armed forces, be it their training, equipment, logistics and command structure.
An essay on the war published in January by the Centre for European Policy Analysis said Ukraine is demonstrating “superior performances across multiple domains and shows no sign of imminent collapse.”
“The only pathway to Russian victory lies in undermining Western resolve and fostering the illusion of Russian strength,” it concluded.
That is why the timing of Trump’s decision to suspend arms, it appears, could not have been worse.
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