George Barros, from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), highlighted the organization’s mission to deliver open-source intelligence on key military operations and threats to guide U.S. and allied policymakers.
TVP World’s Don Arleth spoke with George Barros, the Russia Team and Geospatial Intelligence Team Lead at the ISW, who recently shared insights about the organization’s functions, operations, and thoughts regarding Russia’s intentions in Ukraine.
“The ISW is a nonprofit organization specializing in open-source intelligence, foreign policy, and national research,” he said. “Its aim is to inform policymakers by providing a better understanding of critical military operations and threats that concern the U.S. and its allies.”
Partner collaboration, real-time battlefield scenarios
The ISW collaborates with several space technology partners to collect a variety of data, Barros said. For example, “Mexxar and Planet Labs gather electro-optical imagery of the Earth, which provides a medium-resolution view of the battlefield. NASA collects thermal and heat data through sensors that detect heat anomalies and fires during conflicts. These signals can indicate attack events and help verify those signatures. This data is a valuable resource for tracking Russian troop movements.”
Sharing intelligence with Ukraine
Barros clarified that the ISW is “not a combat support team and does not share any information with Ukrainians that would assist them in planning their operations. The ISW does not have access to classified information.”
However, they do share their reports and data with U.S. and allied governments, he added.
Barros conducts numerous briefings with senior policymakers in Washington, supports NATO, and provides reports that they hope will assist the Ukrainians.
“Our primary target audience is civilian decision-makers, with the goal of helping them make the correct strategic decisions and implement the appropriate policies to halt the Russian invasion in Ukraine.”
Uncertainty about disclosing specific information
“We firmly believe in disseminating information that can offer clarity and assist policymakers in making timely and appropriate decisions. They typically only release information that they deem to be of medium to high confidence” Barros said.
However, on occasion, “we may publish a report that is of low confidence. Note that we have implemented precautionary measures in our reporting process, extracting numerous valuable details about Russian operations from both the Russians themselves and their own sources.”
Barros stated that the aim is to “prevent the Kremlin from using their reports as a sort of hit list to identify and eliminate sources.”
Predictions for Chasiv Yar
Barros is certain that Russian President Vladimir Putin has a significant operational goal: to capture the city of Kharkiv. However, he doesn’t believe that the current operation, which started on May 10, is that operation.
He says that it “could help establish the conditions for a subsequent campaign to seize Kharkiv city”, but upon examining the specific tactical details, the situation appears to be different. He also expressed his hope that the Ukrainians will be able to counter the Russian offensive and retain control of Chasiv Yar, a town of operational significance.
Military aid for Ukraine
Barros mentioned that it’s going to take several weeks for the equipment to reach the front lines at scale. The ISW continues to monitor the situation closely and provide valuable insights to policymakers.
“The ISW is a nonprofit organization specializing in open-source intelligence, foreign policy, and national research,” he said. “Its aim is to inform policymakers by providing a better understanding of critical military operations and threats that concern the U.S. and its allies.”
Partner collaboration, real-time battlefield scenarios
The ISW collaborates with several space technology partners to collect a variety of data, Barros said. For example, “Mexxar and Planet Labs gather electro-optical imagery of the Earth, which provides a medium-resolution view of the battlefield. NASA collects thermal and heat data through sensors that detect heat anomalies and fires during conflicts. These signals can indicate attack events and help verify those signatures. This data is a valuable resource for tracking Russian troop movements.”
Sharing intelligence with Ukraine
Barros clarified that the ISW is “not a combat support team and does not share any information with Ukrainians that would assist them in planning their operations. The ISW does not have access to classified information.”
However, they do share their reports and data with U.S. and allied governments, he added.
Barros conducts numerous briefings with senior policymakers in Washington, supports NATO, and provides reports that they hope will assist the Ukrainians.
“Our primary target audience is civilian decision-makers, with the goal of helping them make the correct strategic decisions and implement the appropriate policies to halt the Russian invasion in Ukraine.”
Uncertainty about disclosing specific information
“We firmly believe in disseminating information that can offer clarity and assist policymakers in making timely and appropriate decisions. They typically only release information that they deem to be of medium to high confidence” Barros said.
However, on occasion, “we may publish a report that is of low confidence. Note that we have implemented precautionary measures in our reporting process, extracting numerous valuable details about Russian operations from both the Russians themselves and their own sources.”
Barros stated that the aim is to “prevent the Kremlin from using their reports as a sort of hit list to identify and eliminate sources.”
Predictions for Chasiv Yar
Barros is certain that Russian President Vladimir Putin has a significant operational goal: to capture the city of Kharkiv. However, he doesn’t believe that the current operation, which started on May 10, is that operation.
He says that it “could help establish the conditions for a subsequent campaign to seize Kharkiv city”, but upon examining the specific tactical details, the situation appears to be different. He also expressed his hope that the Ukrainians will be able to counter the Russian offensive and retain control of Chasiv Yar, a town of operational significance.
Military aid for Ukraine
Barros mentioned that it’s going to take several weeks for the equipment to reach the front lines at scale. The ISW continues to monitor the situation closely and provide valuable insights to policymakers.
Source: TVP World
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