As alarm rises following recent shifts in American foreign policy, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, has questioned the future of NATO amid mounting speculation that he will seek to secure a nuclear protection agreement with Britain and France.
European leaders were left stunned following U.S. declarations that Europe should be less reliant on American security guarantees and were further blindsided after the White House initiated talks with the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine without consulting either Brussels or Kyiv.
Speaking last night following his election win, Merz told German public broadcaster ARD: “I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this on a TV show but, after Donald Trump's remarks last week... it is clear that [his] government does not care much about the fate of Europe.”
Referencing June’s NATO summit, Merz asked “whether we would still be talking about NATO in its current form then or whether we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much more quickly.”
Responding to Merz’s comments, Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp warned that Europe needed to hold “realistic expectations” with regards to future U.S. relations, and that a new start awaited the bloc.
“The era that started at the fall of the Berlin Wall is now over,” said Veldkamp.
Speaking last night following his election win, Merz told German public broadcaster ARD: “I would never have thought that I would have to say something like this on a TV show but, after Donald Trump's remarks last week... it is clear that [his] government does not care much about the fate of Europe.”
Referencing June’s NATO summit, Merz asked “whether we would still be talking about NATO in its current form then or whether we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much more quickly.”
Responding to Merz’s comments, Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp warned that Europe needed to hold “realistic expectations” with regards to future U.S. relations, and that a new start awaited the bloc.
“The era that started at the fall of the Berlin Wall is now over,” said Veldkamp.
With the transatlantic crisis deepening, Merz has already ceded that Germany should be less reliant on American military safeguards, advocating talks with France and Britain that would see Europe’s two nuclear powers expand their protective umbrella to Germany.
“That we have to talk to the British and French whether their nuclear protection could also be extended to us is an issue that the French government has repeatedly raised with the German government,” Merz said on Friday, adding that this offer had been “unanswered” by his predecessors.
In 2007, Angela Merkel rejected a French overture to share its nuclear arsenal, with follow-up proposals also cold-shouldered by Berlin.
Now, however, a tightening of nuclear arrangements between Europe’s traditional three powerhouses seems increasingly possible with Merz already opening the doors for dialogue. “We must talk to each other about what that could look like,” he said on Friday.
“That we have to talk to the British and French whether their nuclear protection could also be extended to us is an issue that the French government has repeatedly raised with the German government,” Merz said on Friday, adding that this offer had been “unanswered” by his predecessors.
In 2007, Angela Merkel rejected a French overture to share its nuclear arsenal, with follow-up proposals also cold-shouldered by Berlin.
Now, however, a tightening of nuclear arrangements between Europe’s traditional three powerhouses seems increasingly possible with Merz already opening the doors for dialogue. “We must talk to each other about what that could look like,” he said on Friday.
While such a move would be logical given the growing tensions with the Trump administration, it would mark a seismic shift from Europe’s post-war order—traditionally, Germany has strongly aligned itself to America in terms of its post-war security.
This could stand to change. “We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defense commitment unconditionally,” Merz said.
He continued: “That is why, in my view, it is crucial that Europeans make the greatest possible efforts to ensure that we are at least capable of defending the European continent on our own.”
His comments are likely to be received warmly by the French.
In 2020, the French President Emmanuel Macron attempted to push the idea of ‘Europeanizing’ his country’s nuclear deterrent, an issue he revisited in 2024 when proposing a European defense initiative that would have offered, among other things, joint deterrence exercises with key partners and “a new strategic dialogue.”
This could stand to change. “We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defense commitment unconditionally,” Merz said.
He continued: “That is why, in my view, it is crucial that Europeans make the greatest possible efforts to ensure that we are at least capable of defending the European continent on our own.”
His comments are likely to be received warmly by the French.
In 2020, the French President Emmanuel Macron attempted to push the idea of ‘Europeanizing’ his country’s nuclear deterrent, an issue he revisited in 2024 when proposing a European defense initiative that would have offered, among other things, joint deterrence exercises with key partners and “a new strategic dialogue.”
On Thursday, Marcon again emphasized that France’s nuclear outlook “always had a European dimension,” and pledged that he would continue to press other European nations to embrace his vision.
“In the months and years to come, we'll be talking through this doctrine with a number of partners and decide whether, and how, we should increase this [deterrence] solidarity,” he said.
Referring to Merz’s comments, one French defense insider, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Politico: “In many ways, what's happening is a bit positive. For decades, under the guise of trans-Atlanticism, we've been losing interest in defense and letting the U.S. decide—it's also an opportunity for Europe to take matters into its own hands.”
“In the months and years to come, we'll be talking through this doctrine with a number of partners and decide whether, and how, we should increase this [deterrence] solidarity,” he said.
Referring to Merz’s comments, one French defense insider, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Politico: “In many ways, what's happening is a bit positive. For decades, under the guise of trans-Atlanticism, we've been losing interest in defense and letting the U.S. decide—it's also an opportunity for Europe to take matters into its own hands.”
Britain might also be receptive to the idea of ‘Europeanizing’ its Trident submarine-launched nuclear weapons. Although question marks over command chains and just who orders the button to be pushed will no doubt complicate matters; by offering to extend the UK’s nuclear umbrella to continental Europe, London will demonstrate to the U.S. that it is serious about enhancing European defense.
At the same time Europeanization could also introduce cost-sharing, an appealing factor to Britain’s cash-strapped government. The UK’s fleet of four new Dreadnought-class submarines, currently under construction, will cost around GBP 31 billion (€37.4 billion) according to the British government, and that does not include the price of the missiles.
Challenges, though, await. In Germany, any coalition that Merz forms faces immediate scrutiny from the far-right AfD and will, first and foremost, be under intense pressure to address the migrant crisis and resuscitate the economy.
At the same time Europeanization could also introduce cost-sharing, an appealing factor to Britain’s cash-strapped government. The UK’s fleet of four new Dreadnought-class submarines, currently under construction, will cost around GBP 31 billion (€37.4 billion) according to the British government, and that does not include the price of the missiles.
Challenges, though, await. In Germany, any coalition that Merz forms faces immediate scrutiny from the far-right AfD and will, first and foremost, be under intense pressure to address the migrant crisis and resuscitate the economy.
As such, cracks stand to appear in any newborn government should they not score successes on these domestic fronts and could disrupt any dramatic swings in Germany’s foreign policy; the stale state of Germany’s economy could hinder any plans to ramp up security spending and share additional cost burdens with Britain and France.
Moreover, as many observers have noted, talk is cheap—for Merz to engineer a nuclear protection agreement with the U.K. and France, and safeguard Germany’s security, numerous hurdles need first be overcome.
Negotiations promise to be complex and will require not just agreements within the German coalition, but also with other European countries. Whether Germany’s expectations coalesce with Britain’s and France’s remains to be seen.
Even so, with the chancellor-in-waiting using last night’s television address to criticize Washington’s “interventions” in the German electoral process, and clarifying his desire to “achieve independence from the USA,” it would appear that Germany is already taking the first steps towards alternative nuclear protection.
Moreover, as many observers have noted, talk is cheap—for Merz to engineer a nuclear protection agreement with the U.K. and France, and safeguard Germany’s security, numerous hurdles need first be overcome.
Negotiations promise to be complex and will require not just agreements within the German coalition, but also with other European countries. Whether Germany’s expectations coalesce with Britain’s and France’s remains to be seen.
Even so, with the chancellor-in-waiting using last night’s television address to criticize Washington’s “interventions” in the German electoral process, and clarifying his desire to “achieve independence from the USA,” it would appear that Germany is already taking the first steps towards alternative nuclear protection.
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