Recent changes to Germany’s blended electoral system have caused some headaches for those who would like to attempt to predict the final outcome.
Since 1953, every German voter has been able to cast two ballots - one for an MP elected from their local single-seat constituency, and the second for a party with seats distributed proportionally.
A quirk of the system was that while the number of single-constituency seats was fixed at 299, meaning at least this number of MPs would be elected, the number of seats allocated proportionally (by default also 299) could also be increased by so-called ‘overhang seats’. This ensures the overall proportionality of the parliament regardless of the distribution of single-constituency seats.
In 2021, that led to a parliament of 735 seats, one of the largest legislatures in the world.
But a new law will fix the size of the parliament at 630 seats and prioritize proportionality over individual member seats.
Now, if a party wins a share of seats that is greater in proportion to their share of the national vote, some constituencies will be left vacant, starting with those where the winning candidates have the narrowest margins of victory.
The change may hurt parties that are traditionally strong in single-member constituencies - in particular the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of the Christian Democrats (CDU) whose leader Friedrich Merz is tipped to become the next chancellor after the February snap election.
Under rules designed to prevent the chaotic and fragmented parliaments that in the 1930s helped the disastrous rise to power of Adolf Hitler’s Nazis, parties must generally win 5% of the national vote to enter parliament.
However, parties that win three constituency seats are also entitled to seats corresponding to their vote share even if it is below 5%.
In 2021, this rule saved the Left party, which, thanks to three members with strong regional bases in eastern Germany, won 39 seats.
The combination of the 5% threshold, the three-seat exception, and an unusually competitive party landscape with many smaller parties jostling for position makes for a particularly unpredictable election.
Based on a poll of 9,281 German voters taken between February 7 and February 19, the most recent available, the center-right CDU/CSU remain in the lead.
Their support rating of 30% would translate into 220 seats for the CDU/CSU.
A quirk of the system was that while the number of single-constituency seats was fixed at 299, meaning at least this number of MPs would be elected, the number of seats allocated proportionally (by default also 299) could also be increased by so-called ‘overhang seats’. This ensures the overall proportionality of the parliament regardless of the distribution of single-constituency seats.
In 2021, that led to a parliament of 735 seats, one of the largest legislatures in the world.
But a new law will fix the size of the parliament at 630 seats and prioritize proportionality over individual member seats.
Now, if a party wins a share of seats that is greater in proportion to their share of the national vote, some constituencies will be left vacant, starting with those where the winning candidates have the narrowest margins of victory.
The change may hurt parties that are traditionally strong in single-member constituencies - in particular the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party of the Christian Democrats (CDU) whose leader Friedrich Merz is tipped to become the next chancellor after the February snap election.
The 5% threshold
Under rules designed to prevent the chaotic and fragmented parliaments that in the 1930s helped the disastrous rise to power of Adolf Hitler’s Nazis, parties must generally win 5% of the national vote to enter parliament.
However, parties that win three constituency seats are also entitled to seats corresponding to their vote share even if it is below 5%.
In 2021, this rule saved the Left party, which, thanks to three members with strong regional bases in eastern Germany, won 39 seats.
The combination of the 5% threshold, the three-seat exception, and an unusually competitive party landscape with many smaller parties jostling for position makes for a particularly unpredictable election.
Latest polls and possible seat allocation
Based on a poll of 9,281 German voters taken between February 7 and February 19, the most recent available, the center-right CDU/CSU remain in the lead.
Their support rating of 30% would translate into 220 seats for the CDU/CSU.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has managed to double its support since last elections and comes in second with 20% of the vote, which translates to 145 seats. What is more, the AfD are expected to take virtually all but a handful of the single-seat constituencies in former East Germany.
The center-left social democrats (SPD) will see their worst result in Germany’s post-war electoral history. Its 16% support is expected to result in 115 seats for the party of incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
SPD’s result is just one percentage point more than what their coalition partners, the Greens, managed to win in the previous elections. For the environmentalist-focused party it was a record high. Their support has dropped somewhat but they can still hope for 94 seats from their current 13% support.
The Left, a socialist party, has made a comeback. Just weeks ago, their only hope to gain a double-digit representation in parliament was to win at least three single-seat constituencies again. While not impossible, a recent spike in popularity means the party is expected to clear the threshold with 7% of support and gain 55 seats.
The left-wing but socially conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which split from The Left, and the liberals from the FDP whose departure from the coalition brought about the snap election, face a serious likelihood of being eliminated from parliamentary politics. Both are polling about half-a-percentage-point short of the 5% threshold. They also have no hope of gaining any single-seat constituencies.
Pollster YouGov noted, however, that the BSW and FDP are so close to the threshold, it cannot be completely ruled out that either one or both of them, manage to cross it.
Since neither of the parties are expected to win a majority of seats, a coalition is inevitable. As things stand, a coalition cannot be formed without CDU/CSU and the party has ruled out any coalition involving the AfD.
In theory, SPD could remain in power if invited by CDU/CSU to form a ‘grand coalition,’ which is not unprecedented – Scholz served as deputy chancellor in Angela Merkel’s last cabinet before the 2021 elections. Whether there would be a place for Scholz in such a government or even at the helm of his own party, considering the losses suffered by the social democrats, remains a separate matter.
A coalition of CDU/CSU and the Greens is also a possibility, but YouGov notes that its likeliest estimates indicate that with 314 seats it would be short of a majority by two MPs. If it came to pass, however, it would be the first ‘Black-Green’ coalition on a federal level, as such alliances have only been previously made locally at municipal levels, and only very recently on state levels.
No other two-way coalition can be expected to form with the likely results. Any three-way coalition would either require uncomfortable or unlikely alliances, another party to cross the threshold or a combination of those. While not impossible, as various seemingly exotic coalitions have been seen on local and state levels, they are not very likely.
If BSW does cross the threshold, however, this would reduce the seats allocated to other parties. As BSW’s positions situate it between The Left and AfD, this reduces the party’s attractiveness as a coalition partner. A coalition of CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens would become more likely, if not a necessity. Due to the colors traditionally associated with the parties, such a coalition would be dubbed a ‘Kenya coalition.’
If FDP manages to cross the threshold, either alongside or instead of BSW, it would have the same effect on other parties’ seat allocation. However FDP, albeit small, is considered a mainstream party and has often participated in government formation.
Keeping in line with the flag metaphor, if it allied with CDU/CSU and the Greens, this would result in a so-called ‘Jamaica coalition’.
If it joined the ‘grand coalition’ of CDU/CSU and SPD, this would be called a ‘Germany coalition.’ It might, however, require an uneasy collaboration between Scholz and Lindner’s parties. The leaders may need to bury the hatchet or make concessions, including the resignation of one of the leaders.
The center-left social democrats (SPD) will see their worst result in Germany’s post-war electoral history. Its 16% support is expected to result in 115 seats for the party of incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
SPD’s result is just one percentage point more than what their coalition partners, the Greens, managed to win in the previous elections. For the environmentalist-focused party it was a record high. Their support has dropped somewhat but they can still hope for 94 seats from their current 13% support.
The Left, a socialist party, has made a comeback. Just weeks ago, their only hope to gain a double-digit representation in parliament was to win at least three single-seat constituencies again. While not impossible, a recent spike in popularity means the party is expected to clear the threshold with 7% of support and gain 55 seats.
The left-wing but socially conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which split from The Left, and the liberals from the FDP whose departure from the coalition brought about the snap election, face a serious likelihood of being eliminated from parliamentary politics. Both are polling about half-a-percentage-point short of the 5% threshold. They also have no hope of gaining any single-seat constituencies.
Pollster YouGov noted, however, that the BSW and FDP are so close to the threshold, it cannot be completely ruled out that either one or both of them, manage to cross it.
Possible coalitions
Since neither of the parties are expected to win a majority of seats, a coalition is inevitable. As things stand, a coalition cannot be formed without CDU/CSU and the party has ruled out any coalition involving the AfD.
In theory, SPD could remain in power if invited by CDU/CSU to form a ‘grand coalition,’ which is not unprecedented – Scholz served as deputy chancellor in Angela Merkel’s last cabinet before the 2021 elections. Whether there would be a place for Scholz in such a government or even at the helm of his own party, considering the losses suffered by the social democrats, remains a separate matter.
A coalition of CDU/CSU and the Greens is also a possibility, but YouGov notes that its likeliest estimates indicate that with 314 seats it would be short of a majority by two MPs. If it came to pass, however, it would be the first ‘Black-Green’ coalition on a federal level, as such alliances have only been previously made locally at municipal levels, and only very recently on state levels.
No other two-way coalition can be expected to form with the likely results. Any three-way coalition would either require uncomfortable or unlikely alliances, another party to cross the threshold or a combination of those. While not impossible, as various seemingly exotic coalitions have been seen on local and state levels, they are not very likely.
The uncomfortable necessity of three-way alliances?
If BSW does cross the threshold, however, this would reduce the seats allocated to other parties. As BSW’s positions situate it between The Left and AfD, this reduces the party’s attractiveness as a coalition partner. A coalition of CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens would become more likely, if not a necessity. Due to the colors traditionally associated with the parties, such a coalition would be dubbed a ‘Kenya coalition.’
If FDP manages to cross the threshold, either alongside or instead of BSW, it would have the same effect on other parties’ seat allocation. However FDP, albeit small, is considered a mainstream party and has often participated in government formation.
Keeping in line with the flag metaphor, if it allied with CDU/CSU and the Greens, this would result in a so-called ‘Jamaica coalition’.
If it joined the ‘grand coalition’ of CDU/CSU and SPD, this would be called a ‘Germany coalition.’ It might, however, require an uneasy collaboration between Scholz and Lindner’s parties. The leaders may need to bury the hatchet or make concessions, including the resignation of one of the leaders.
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