More than half of Ukrainian refugees say they are not planning to return to their homeland, a new study shows for the first time since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
A representative study of Ukrainians by research agency Info Sapiens reveals that 43% of refugees are planning to return to their homeland, compared to 52% in January 2024 and 74% in December 2022.
Based on the results, the agency estimates between 1.7 and 2.7 million Ukrainians may remain abroad permanently, even after the war ends. The poll was carried out in November and December 2024.
This could have devastating consequences for Ukraine’s economy, with some experts estimating that it could reduce Ukraine’s GDP by 5.1% to 7.8% annually.
The majority of Ukrainian refugees are women (44%) and children and most reside in Germany (27%) and Poland (23%), data from Eurostat shows. However, the proportion of adult men fleeing Ukraine has increased over the past year by almost 10 percentage points.
Daria Mykhailyshyna, co-author of the study and senior economist at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) said this is a “substantial” difference and shows “the profile of Ukrainian refugees has changed significantly since late 2022.”
For most Ukrainian refugees (53%), the main factors that would spur them to return is the full cessation of hostilities and the restoration of air travel.
However, as many as 46% of respondents said that high on that list of motivators was also a higher standard of living in Ukraine, such as improvements in education, healthcare and anti-corruption efforts.
Based on the results, the agency estimates between 1.7 and 2.7 million Ukrainians may remain abroad permanently, even after the war ends. The poll was carried out in November and December 2024.
This could have devastating consequences for Ukraine’s economy, with some experts estimating that it could reduce Ukraine’s GDP by 5.1% to 7.8% annually.
The majority of Ukrainian refugees are women (44%) and children and most reside in Germany (27%) and Poland (23%), data from Eurostat shows. However, the proportion of adult men fleeing Ukraine has increased over the past year by almost 10 percentage points.
Daria Mykhailyshyna, co-author of the study and senior economist at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) said this is a “substantial” difference and shows “the profile of Ukrainian refugees has changed significantly since late 2022.”
For most Ukrainian refugees (53%), the main factors that would spur them to return is the full cessation of hostilities and the restoration of air travel.
However, as many as 46% of respondents said that high on that list of motivators was also a higher standard of living in Ukraine, such as improvements in education, healthcare and anti-corruption efforts.
At the end of the study, CES, which commissioned the report, listed some recommended policies that it believes would encourage Ukrainian refugees to return to their home country.
This included providing social and financial assistance for individuals from war-affected and occupied regions and simplifying reintegration processes for children in Ukrainian schools and universities.
Approximately 1,000 refugees were polled in previous rounds of the survey. The most recent study was the fourth carried out by CES.
As of the end of November 2024, 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees remain abroad, which is 300,000 more than in January 2024.
Approximately 4.2 million Ukrainians hold temporary protection status in EU countries, with the largest numbers in Germany (1.2 million), Poland (988,000), and the Czech Republic (385,000).
Monday marks the three-year anniversary of the war which has seen Russia occupy 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory.
Discussions about peace negotiations between Russia and the U.S. started last week, but did not include Ukrainian representatives.
This included providing social and financial assistance for individuals from war-affected and occupied regions and simplifying reintegration processes for children in Ukrainian schools and universities.
Approximately 1,000 refugees were polled in previous rounds of the survey. The most recent study was the fourth carried out by CES.
As of the end of November 2024, 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees remain abroad, which is 300,000 more than in January 2024.
Approximately 4.2 million Ukrainians hold temporary protection status in EU countries, with the largest numbers in Germany (1.2 million), Poland (988,000), and the Czech Republic (385,000).
Monday marks the three-year anniversary of the war which has seen Russia occupy 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory.
Discussions about peace negotiations between Russia and the U.S. started last week, but did not include Ukrainian representatives.
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