Talk of a land-for-peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, with Ukraine having to “accept” that it will not return to its pre-2014 borders, has become commonplace since Donald Trump returned to the White House.
What is rarely, if ever, mentioned is that the land contains people, and that people will be traded for peace.
The roughly 20% of Ukraine currently under Russian occupation is not a desert bereft of population. Official estimates for the number of people living under occupation vary. The pre-war population of the occupied territories was about 6 million, but that number has dropped to about 3.5 million owing to people leaving or being forcibly displaced.
It is possible that some of those who propose a deal in which millions could end up trapped on the wrong side of a ‘peace’ border do so with the notion, lubricated by Russian propaganda, that Ukrainians are all part of a big Slavic family and so don’t really care if their flag is blue and yellow or red, white and blue.
But this is not the reality.
A land-for-peace deal could condemn millions to a life where human and civil rights are few and disregarded, their nationality erased and the land they once lived on exploited and abused by Russia.
Painting a grim picture of life under occupation, he said his family had to endure checkpoints and filtration camps designed to remove those suspected of harboring pro-Ukraine sentiments and the forced conscription of men into the army, who were then sent to the front “because their lives meant nothing.”
Ivan also spoke of a collapsing health system and an economy and an environment in ruins.
“People abroad, in Europe, don’t know what life there looks like,” he said. “I can't say that medicine doesn't exist. There are hospitals, clinics and pharmacies. But the quality of medication, the availability of supplies and the quality of medical staff are all rapidly approaching zero.
“If you don’t go to a hospital. You go straight to a funeral home.”
“The territory is absolutely dead; and I don’t mean that metaphorically,” Ivan continued. “All the industries have been looted, destroyed. Nothing is functioning. It was old infrastructure to begin with but the few modern factories that existed were dismantled back in 2014.”
Official documents on life for Ukrainians in the occupied territories provide equally damning testimony of life under Russian rule.
A report on Ukraine by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published in December wrote that Russia is implementing a policy of “suppressing expressions of Ukrainian identity and culture in the occupied territory.”
The school curriculum has been redesigned to promote Russian patriotism and “spiritual-moral values.” The authorities have also introduced military training to schools.
Another aspect of forced Russification is through property laws providing limitations on the rights for non-Russians to buy and sell property. In short, if you want to buy a flat, having Russian citizenship makes life a lot easier.
The same applies to getting access to pensions, healthcare and social security.
But far worse things are also happening.
“In violation of its obligations under international law, the Russian Federation continued to implement Russian legislation in its entirety across the territory of Ukraine, which it occupies, leading to further detention of civilians, many of whom were tortured or ill-treated, as well as ongoing restrictions on fundamental freedoms, property ownership and cultural rights,” the report said.
An OSCE report also from December wrote that the thousands of Russian authorities were using a system of arbitrary arrest to intimidate the population.
“As many as several thousand individuals remained arbitrarily detained, both in Russian Federation-occupied territories of Ukraine and in the Russian Federation,” said the report.
“Many of them were being held incommunicado, subjected to regular transfers between detention facilities and denied access to lawyers in circumstances that amount to, or may result in, enforced disappearance.
“Widespread reports of torture, as well as inhuman conditions of detention in facilities operated by the Russian authorities, raise additional concerns for the safety of these individuals,” it added.
It appears there is ample evidence that suggests Russia is subjecting Ukrainians in the occupied territories to an intense campaign of violence, intimidation and forced Russification. A land-for-peace deal could well intensify this process as Moscow seeks to enforce its grip over a population that resents its rule.
For Ivan, this should come as no surprise.
“They [the Russians] don’t even value their own people’s lives,” he told TVP World.
“So how could they possibly care about the lives of the opposing side?”