With Ukraine’s military command remaining tight-lipped about their incursion into Kursk, speculation has mounted as to the reasoning behind the surprise attack.
On August 7, Ukrainian units crossed the Russian border from northern Ukraine in what many analysts first suspected was little more than a tokenistic raid. However, while even President Zelenskyy has only obliquely referenced the attack, its significance and scale have become increasingly evident.
While this is not Ukraine’s first foray onto Russian soil, it is the largest to be conducted using regular forces as opposed to proxies. Although the situation is developing dynamically, some reports suggest that Ukraine has already seized more land in the last couple of days than over the entire course of last summer’s counter-offensive. “All the signs show that this [area] is getting bigger,” says Sky News security and defense analyst Professor Michael Clarke.
According to some sources, three Ukrainian brigades – a total of six to eight thousand troops – have been active in this attack, with retired Australian army Major General Mick Ryan praising these formations for their “quality”.
“It appears that unlike in the 2023 southern counter-offensive where fresh brigades were employed, the Ukrainians have allocated experienced formations to this attack,” wrote Ryan on X.
Though the operation remains cloaked in secrecy, further details are emerging. “The Ukrainians have attacked with a highly mobile, mechanized force,” continued Ryan, adding that Ukraine had also deployed “a significant amount of air defense capability.”
Complementing the attack, we also know that Ukraine has struck an air base in the region of Lipetsk with a wave of drones detonating hundreds of Russian bombs that had been kept in storage.
As footage surfaces of destroyed Russian convoys and surrendering units, Russian military bloggers have reacted with rising alarm.
“What the Ukrainians have done is inventive and risky,” says Professor Clarke. “We won’t know how risky until we see how Russia responds and with what sort of force.” Yet while the offensive has caught Russia off-guard, analysts have been left pondering the reason for the attack.
“It’s unlikely that the plan is to seriously take Kursk itself, or to try and hold vast swathes of Russian territory,” says Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute think tank. While some have theorized that the attack is an attempt to relieve Russian pressure in the Donetsk region, it is too early to say if Russia will withdraw and redeploy substantial numbers from this section.
“Given Russia’s advantage in manpower, one would have to assess that this outcome is probably unlikely,” says Ryan.
“Another operational objective, which is more likely to be realized, is to force the Russians to reconsider their force dispositions elsewhere on the front line,” continues Ryan. “The Russians will have to respond, and even they do not have a bottomless pit of resources to do so.”
By doing so, the Ukrainian attack stands to reduce Russia’s grinding momentum. “Ukrainian planners will understand that even Russia can’t remain on the offensive forever,” says Ryan, who currently works as a Senior Fellow for the Lowy Institute think tank.
Ukraine could have specific objectives in mind related to ground advances – for instance, the seizure of Kursk nuclear power station. With Ukraine reportedly now controlling the Sudzha gas hub – the main gas pipeline running into Europe – the country could now have added leverage with the EU, especially when it comes to nations such as Hungary and Slovakia who have proved increasingly resistant in terms of green-lighting military aid.
Given that much of this gas runs directly to these two countries, the attack could pay dividends.
On a more base level, by launching their attack Ukraine’s command have again shown their willingness to shake the dice and deliver the unexpected. As war fatigue sets in in the West, the attack reshapes the narrative by sending a clear message that Ukraine is, as Savill puts it, “still in the fight”.
Given the speed of Ukraine’s advance, the country has again shown a deft ability to seemingly outfox Russia. This alone sends a timely reminder to Ukraine’s allies that their backing has not been wasted.
Domestically, too, the audacity and scope of the incursion has lifted morale following months of tactical retreats and general gloom. As Ukrainian authorities continue to drum up recruitment to the armed services, the attack has acted as a signal that the nation will not be bowed – hope has flickered anew.
By going for a bold land grab, Ukraine could be seeking to strengthen its position at the negotiating table. “Negotiating with some of your enemy’s territory is much better than negotiating without it,” says Ryan.
Similarly, the capture of Russian troops will further lend weight to any negotiations. With Russian society seemingly more sympathetic to the fate of conscripts, the capture of a sizable number elevates Ukraine’s chances of negotiating a favorable peace deal while simultaneously adding to Putin’s woes at home.
The swiftness of the action and the surprise with which it has taken Russia will be an acute source of embarrassment for Putin. Amid the wave of optimism, Putin’s reaction is one source of worry. Thoughts that Ukraine may have crossed a line, though, have been dismissed by some commentators, among them retired Polish General Roman Polko.
Speaking to state news agency PAP, Polko said: “You can’t be a boxer and fight in the ring with one arm tied behind your back,” he said.
Ultimately, only time will tell if the effort has been worthwhile. “At a moment when Ukrainian defenders in the east are being pushed back on several axes, the use of highly capable Ukrainian combat forces in Kursk is either a brilliant countermove to shift the momentum in the war, or a strategic error which compounds the challenges in Ukraine’s eastern Ukraine defensive operations,” says Ryan.
With Kyiv yet to lay out its objectives – be they strategic or political – the coming few days should see a fuller picture emerge.
What We Know
While this is not Ukraine’s first foray onto Russian soil, it is the largest to be conducted using regular forces as opposed to proxies. Although the situation is developing dynamically, some reports suggest that Ukraine has already seized more land in the last couple of days than over the entire course of last summer’s counter-offensive. “All the signs show that this [area] is getting bigger,” says Sky News security and defense analyst Professor Michael Clarke.
According to some sources, three Ukrainian brigades – a total of six to eight thousand troops – have been active in this attack, with retired Australian army Major General Mick Ryan praising these formations for their “quality”.
“It appears that unlike in the 2023 southern counter-offensive where fresh brigades were employed, the Ukrainians have allocated experienced formations to this attack,” wrote Ryan on X.
Though the operation remains cloaked in secrecy, further details are emerging. “The Ukrainians have attacked with a highly mobile, mechanized force,” continued Ryan, adding that Ukraine had also deployed “a significant amount of air defense capability.”
Complementing the attack, we also know that Ukraine has struck an air base in the region of Lipetsk with a wave of drones detonating hundreds of Russian bombs that had been kept in storage.
As footage surfaces of destroyed Russian convoys and surrendering units, Russian military bloggers have reacted with rising alarm.
“What the Ukrainians have done is inventive and risky,” says Professor Clarke. “We won’t know how risky until we see how Russia responds and with what sort of force.” Yet while the offensive has caught Russia off-guard, analysts have been left pondering the reason for the attack.
The Why
“It’s unlikely that the plan is to seriously take Kursk itself, or to try and hold vast swathes of Russian territory,” says Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute think tank. While some have theorized that the attack is an attempt to relieve Russian pressure in the Donetsk region, it is too early to say if Russia will withdraw and redeploy substantial numbers from this section.
“Given Russia’s advantage in manpower, one would have to assess that this outcome is probably unlikely,” says Ryan.
“Another operational objective, which is more likely to be realized, is to force the Russians to reconsider their force dispositions elsewhere on the front line,” continues Ryan. “The Russians will have to respond, and even they do not have a bottomless pit of resources to do so.”
By doing so, the Ukrainian attack stands to reduce Russia’s grinding momentum. “Ukrainian planners will understand that even Russia can’t remain on the offensive forever,” says Ryan, who currently works as a Senior Fellow for the Lowy Institute think tank.
Changing The Narrative
Ukraine could have specific objectives in mind related to ground advances – for instance, the seizure of Kursk nuclear power station. With Ukraine reportedly now controlling the Sudzha gas hub – the main gas pipeline running into Europe – the country could now have added leverage with the EU, especially when it comes to nations such as Hungary and Slovakia who have proved increasingly resistant in terms of green-lighting military aid.
Given that much of this gas runs directly to these two countries, the attack could pay dividends.
On a more base level, by launching their attack Ukraine’s command have again shown their willingness to shake the dice and deliver the unexpected. As war fatigue sets in in the West, the attack reshapes the narrative by sending a clear message that Ukraine is, as Savill puts it, “still in the fight”.
Given the speed of Ukraine’s advance, the country has again shown a deft ability to seemingly outfox Russia. This alone sends a timely reminder to Ukraine’s allies that their backing has not been wasted.
Domestically, too, the audacity and scope of the incursion has lifted morale following months of tactical retreats and general gloom. As Ukrainian authorities continue to drum up recruitment to the armed services, the attack has acted as a signal that the nation will not be bowed – hope has flickered anew.
Bargaining Chips
By going for a bold land grab, Ukraine could be seeking to strengthen its position at the negotiating table. “Negotiating with some of your enemy’s territory is much better than negotiating without it,” says Ryan.
Similarly, the capture of Russian troops will further lend weight to any negotiations. With Russian society seemingly more sympathetic to the fate of conscripts, the capture of a sizable number elevates Ukraine’s chances of negotiating a favorable peace deal while simultaneously adding to Putin’s woes at home.
What Next?
The swiftness of the action and the surprise with which it has taken Russia will be an acute source of embarrassment for Putin. Amid the wave of optimism, Putin’s reaction is one source of worry. Thoughts that Ukraine may have crossed a line, though, have been dismissed by some commentators, among them retired Polish General Roman Polko.
Speaking to state news agency PAP, Polko said: “You can’t be a boxer and fight in the ring with one arm tied behind your back,” he said.
Ultimately, only time will tell if the effort has been worthwhile. “At a moment when Ukrainian defenders in the east are being pushed back on several axes, the use of highly capable Ukrainian combat forces in Kursk is either a brilliant countermove to shift the momentum in the war, or a strategic error which compounds the challenges in Ukraine’s eastern Ukraine defensive operations,” says Ryan.
With Kyiv yet to lay out its objectives – be they strategic or political – the coming few days should see a fuller picture emerge.
Source: Politico / Lowy Institute / Euromaidan Press / Sky News
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