The United Nations (UN) has warned that by 2100, Ukraine’s population could decline to 15.3 million, witnessing a drop of more than 50%.
According to the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Ukraine’s population was officially 37.4 million in January this year and is expected to rise to 39.7 million by 2026. After that, it will begin a steep decline, dropping to just 15.3 million by the end of the century.
Oleksandr Hladun, deputy director of Ukraine’s Demography Institute, admitted that while the forecast is very pessimistic, it should not be treated as the only credible finding with regards to Ukraine.Latest UN median forecast for Ukraine's population by 2100 is 15 mln. The popular TV ad of the early 90s "We are 52 mln" used to be part of the identity of Ukrainians of my generation. Now even the most optimistic scenarios predict twice as few. "Towards the abyss" visualized. pic.twitter.com/IJ9V2bQ9US
— Volodymyr Ishchenko (@Volod_Ishchenko) July 14, 2024
Continuing, he explained that there were several categories of demographic forecast: optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic, each characterized by different parameters for fertility, mortality, and migration.
“For me, this is one of the most dismal prophecies for our state. It was most likely made with the war in mind, as well as the lack of population policy measures.
However, I would not advise to interpret the UN estimate on demography as the sole true verdict for Ukraine,” Hladun said.
He also explained that forecasts are categorized by the time period they cover, and are divided into short-term (2-5 years, most accurate), medium-term (10-15 years), and long-term (over 50 years), with accuracy decreasing as the time interval grows.
According to forecasts by the Institute of Demography, from mid-2023 Ukraine’s population may fall to about 30 million by 2037.
Hladun believes that long-term forecasts should be seen as a warning in case the worst-case scenarios come true.
“Long-term projections should be viewed as a warning: what the progression of events can lead to in terms of fertility, mortality, and migration.
In my perspective, the most dismal long-term prognosis for Ukraine is a population decline to 25 million. However, even if the population starts to drop rapidly, it will be replaced by people who move from other countries,” he added.
“For me, this is one of the most dismal prophecies for our state. It was most likely made with the war in mind, as well as the lack of population policy measures.
However, I would not advise to interpret the UN estimate on demography as the sole true verdict for Ukraine,” Hladun said.
He also explained that forecasts are categorized by the time period they cover, and are divided into short-term (2-5 years, most accurate), medium-term (10-15 years), and long-term (over 50 years), with accuracy decreasing as the time interval grows.
According to forecasts by the Institute of Demography, from mid-2023 Ukraine’s population may fall to about 30 million by 2037.
Hladun believes that long-term forecasts should be seen as a warning in case the worst-case scenarios come true.
“Long-term projections should be viewed as a warning: what the progression of events can lead to in terms of fertility, mortality, and migration.
In my perspective, the most dismal long-term prognosis for Ukraine is a population decline to 25 million. However, even if the population starts to drop rapidly, it will be replaced by people who move from other countries,” he added.
Source: Polish Radio 24, Ukrainska Pravda
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