The second half of this year will see price rises of above 4%, say economists after confirmation of the annual consumer price index (CPI) at 2.6% in June.
Education, recreation and restaurant prices rose fastest compared to the same time last year, according to a Statistics Poland report on CPI for June. There was a slight rise in the price index from 2.5% in May.
The state statistics office report showed the cost of private education fees went up by 9%, while restaurants put their prices up by 7.7%. Other forms of recreation put their prices up by 4.3%.
Meanwhile, it is utilities that have shown the highest jump. Water and sewage charges have gone up countrywide at an average of 9-10%.
Going into July, economists see inflation accelerating with the removal of electricity and gas price caps, which were put in place in 2023 to help consumers cope with soaring bills after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“We see that freeing energy prices will add another 1.5 percentage points to inflation,” said analysts from the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), a government think tank.
Meanwhile, PKO Bank Polski’s macroeconomics team forecasts that base inflation, which measures price rises for items other than energy and food, will top 4% in the autumn, after falling to 3.7% in June, according to its calculations.
Where does all of this leave mortgages and credit card bills? The National Bank of Poland’s reference rate has remained at 5.75% since last October, despite falling inflation.
The central bank’s governor, Adam Glapiński, said at a Monetary Policy Council meeting in July that he saw no likelihood of a cut in rates until 2026.
A more dovish member of the rate-setting body, Ludwik Kotecki, told Business Insider that a couple of small rate cuts at the beginning of 2025 were possible, but no moves were likely this year.
The state statistics office report showed the cost of private education fees went up by 9%, while restaurants put their prices up by 7.7%. Other forms of recreation put their prices up by 4.3%.
Meanwhile, it is utilities that have shown the highest jump. Water and sewage charges have gone up countrywide at an average of 9-10%.
Going into July, economists see inflation accelerating with the removal of electricity and gas price caps, which were put in place in 2023 to help consumers cope with soaring bills after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“We see that freeing energy prices will add another 1.5 percentage points to inflation,” said analysts from the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), a government think tank.
Meanwhile, PKO Bank Polski’s macroeconomics team forecasts that base inflation, which measures price rises for items other than energy and food, will top 4% in the autumn, after falling to 3.7% in June, according to its calculations.
Where does all of this leave mortgages and credit card bills? The National Bank of Poland’s reference rate has remained at 5.75% since last October, despite falling inflation.
The central bank’s governor, Adam Glapiński, said at a Monetary Policy Council meeting in July that he saw no likelihood of a cut in rates until 2026.
A more dovish member of the rate-setting body, Ludwik Kotecki, told Business Insider that a couple of small rate cuts at the beginning of 2025 were possible, but no moves were likely this year.
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