With France’s far-right National Rally in poll position after the first round of legislative elections on Sunday, the country now awaits the decisive second round in which multiple scenarios may play out, Poland’s former ambassador to Paris told TVP World.
A day after France went to the polls in a surprise snap election, TVP World welcomed Poland’s former ambassador to France and Italy, Tomasz Orłowski, to discuss what the first-round win of the far right meant for the country.
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party took slightly more than 33% of votes with the hastily assembled leftist coalition New Popular Front (NFP) achieving second place with 28% support and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance finishing third on a little under 21%.
The country now faces a week of uncertainty and political horse trading ahead of the decisive second round.
Tomasz Orłowski said three main scenarios are possible. Firstly, Le Pen’s RN could secure the 289 seats needed for an overall majority in the 577-seat National Assembly. A second possibility would be a relative majority, i.e. winning the most votes but not the 50% needed for outright rule, which Orłowski said would prove “very difficult” for governing France. The third scenario, which the former ambassador described as difficult to imagine but impossible to rule out, would be a coalition made up of the New Popular Front and Ensemble.
Before the second round, however, parties opposed to the hard right are expected to strike deals over which third-placed candidates will drop out in specific constituencies in order to give other candidates a better chance of blocking RN, a process Orłowski described as “Republican unity.”
The NFP leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has already said his grouping will use the tactic, but Macron’s Ensemble has sat on the fence and given no clear signals.
Tomasz Orłowski described the situation as “ambiguous” as Macron’s bloc had said: “okay, we are in favor of some left-wing candidates… for instance from the Socialist Party, but not from France Insoumise, who we consider… a far-left movement.”
France Insoumise (France Unbowed) is Mélenchon’s party, which Orłowski said had in recent months displayed anti-Semitic rhetoric in connection with the war in Gaza. “[F]or this reason some politicians from Macron's centrist bloc and center-right movement say they will never consider [helping] a France Insoumise candidate,” Orłowski said.
“They consider France Insoumise exactly like Rassemblement National [National Rally],” he said.
Another scenario to be considered is that of a ‘cohabitation’ government in which the president and prime minister are from opposing camps. This could occur in the event of either a far-right or far-left prime minister.
“In any case, it will be hard,” Orłowski said. “It will be hard for both of them.”
He elaborated that in one scenario, RN’s prime ministerial candidate, Jordan Bardella, would take office acting at the behest of Le Pen and would serve for the next three years of government until Macron’s term expires in 2027.
“And [these are] the years when France will prepare for the next presidential election,” he said. “For many people, what is happening now is a kind of prelude to the presidential elections.”
Macron cannot run for a third term due to a constitutional limit, Orłowski explained.
“For this reason, people are saying he will use this period not only to prepare his legacy, but his succession,” Orłowski said. “On the other hand, he will make life difficult for the chief of the future government, [whether they come from] the left or far left or far right.”
Bardella has already said that if the election process ends in a minority government then he does not intend to serve at its helm. If this scenario comes to pass, Orłowski suggested there may be some form of “technical government” headed by a senior civil servant or former minister, for example.
He said Macron may prefer this outcome as it would restore political stability to France.
“For me, it is a very good solution,” Orłowski said, adding that the idea fits well into the “philosophy of the Constitution of Fifth Republic,” which he said preferred a technical government to a coalition one.
On the subject of Macron’s gamble of snap elections backfiring, Orłowski likened the president’s decision to that of former UK prime minister David Cameron to hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership. The difference, he said, was that in Cameron’s case what was at stake was the future of his party, but in Macron’s it was “not only the future of France, but the whole structure of the Fifth Republic.”
Despite a coming period of uncertainty, Orłowski concluded with an optimistic view: “I am sure France will be governed,” he said. “It will be governed and managed.”
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party took slightly more than 33% of votes with the hastily assembled leftist coalition New Popular Front (NFP) achieving second place with 28% support and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance finishing third on a little under 21%.
The country now faces a week of uncertainty and political horse trading ahead of the decisive second round.
Tomasz Orłowski said three main scenarios are possible. Firstly, Le Pen’s RN could secure the 289 seats needed for an overall majority in the 577-seat National Assembly. A second possibility would be a relative majority, i.e. winning the most votes but not the 50% needed for outright rule, which Orłowski said would prove “very difficult” for governing France. The third scenario, which the former ambassador described as difficult to imagine but impossible to rule out, would be a coalition made up of the New Popular Front and Ensemble.
Before the second round, however, parties opposed to the hard right are expected to strike deals over which third-placed candidates will drop out in specific constituencies in order to give other candidates a better chance of blocking RN, a process Orłowski described as “Republican unity.”
The NFP leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has already said his grouping will use the tactic, but Macron’s Ensemble has sat on the fence and given no clear signals.
Tomasz Orłowski described the situation as “ambiguous” as Macron’s bloc had said: “okay, we are in favor of some left-wing candidates… for instance from the Socialist Party, but not from France Insoumise, who we consider… a far-left movement.”
France Insoumise (France Unbowed) is Mélenchon’s party, which Orłowski said had in recent months displayed anti-Semitic rhetoric in connection with the war in Gaza. “[F]or this reason some politicians from Macron's centrist bloc and center-right movement say they will never consider [helping] a France Insoumise candidate,” Orłowski said.
“They consider France Insoumise exactly like Rassemblement National [National Rally],” he said.
Another scenario to be considered is that of a ‘cohabitation’ government in which the president and prime minister are from opposing camps. This could occur in the event of either a far-right or far-left prime minister.
“In any case, it will be hard,” Orłowski said. “It will be hard for both of them.”
He elaborated that in one scenario, RN’s prime ministerial candidate, Jordan Bardella, would take office acting at the behest of Le Pen and would serve for the next three years of government until Macron’s term expires in 2027.
“And [these are] the years when France will prepare for the next presidential election,” he said. “For many people, what is happening now is a kind of prelude to the presidential elections.”
Macron cannot run for a third term due to a constitutional limit, Orłowski explained.
“For this reason, people are saying he will use this period not only to prepare his legacy, but his succession,” Orłowski said. “On the other hand, he will make life difficult for the chief of the future government, [whether they come from] the left or far left or far right.”
Bardella has already said that if the election process ends in a minority government then he does not intend to serve at its helm. If this scenario comes to pass, Orłowski suggested there may be some form of “technical government” headed by a senior civil servant or former minister, for example.
He said Macron may prefer this outcome as it would restore political stability to France.
“For me, it is a very good solution,” Orłowski said, adding that the idea fits well into the “philosophy of the Constitution of Fifth Republic,” which he said preferred a technical government to a coalition one.
On the subject of Macron’s gamble of snap elections backfiring, Orłowski likened the president’s decision to that of former UK prime minister David Cameron to hold a referendum on Britain’s EU membership. The difference, he said, was that in Cameron’s case what was at stake was the future of his party, but in Macron’s it was “not only the future of France, but the whole structure of the Fifth Republic.”
Despite a coming period of uncertainty, Orłowski concluded with an optimistic view: “I am sure France will be governed,” he said. “It will be governed and managed.”
Source: TVP World
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