As the dust settles on the first round of a French general election which saw a far-right party emerge victorious, a key talking point is what are the implications for Ukraine.
The election saw Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party hoover up 33.1% of the vote, and, at the same time, hammer the centrist bloc of Emmanual Macron, the French president, which got just 20.76%.
Le Pen’s nearest rival, a left-wing alliance, came in second with 28%.
This means that the RN, along with its allies, could have the 289 lawmakers needed for an absolute majority in France’s 577-seat National Assembly in the July 7 run-off vote.
The emphasis here is on “could” because it is clear that the RN’s opponents will put aside differences and work together in order to thwart the chances of France falling under the power of the far-right for the first time since the collaborationist Vichy regime was established in 1940.
Successful cooperation could stop the RN getting an absolute majority, although it might still be the strongest, and therefore most influential, party in parliament.
But, as it stands, the RN is in pole position to form a government. Its victory in the first round has turned French politics on its head, and this is a cause for concern for Ukraine.
To begin with, the party, and Le Pen, have a track record of being somewhat cuddly when it comes to Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin.
Le Pen has visited Russia a number of times and has received positive coverage in the press there, indicating that the Kremlin could well regard her and her party as useful assets.
Last year, a French parliamentary committee examining foreign interference in the country’s politics concluded that RN’s policy stances sometimes “echo the official language of Putin’s regime”.
Le Pen has also insisted that Crimea is Russian, and referred to its illegal annexation as a “reattachment”.
Perhaps worried that being seen as pro-Putin could undermine RN’s chances in the polls, the party has recently seemed keen to downplay and soften its position on Russia.
Jordan Bardella, RN’s president and candidate for prime minister, said last month that “Ukraine must be able to defend itself,” an indication that an RN government would maintain support for Kyiv.
He also suggested further foreign policy continuity on Ukraine, if an RN government is formed, by saying he did not “intend to call into question” France’s international defence commitments.
This could go some way to allay Ukrainian fears about France’s commitment to its defense. But Bardella also said that sending French troops to Ukraine, something that Macron has spoken of, is a “red line” he is not prepared to cross. As is allowing Ukraine to use long-range French-made weapons to strike targets in Russia.
There are also some who argue that a leopard can’t change its spots.
In an interview for the French radio broadcaster RFI, Nicolas Tenzer, a political philosophy teacher at the Sciences Po University in Paris, said that the RN had “never voted for a single resolution in favor of Ukraine” in either the French or European parliament.
He added that if RN won a majority in the National Assembly, it could block any budget support for Ukraine, which would result in the country being “completely sacrificed.”
Ukraine may also face problems if a new and unsettling power dynamic between the French president and prime minister appears under a RN government.
There have been three cases in the past when the president and prime minister came from different parties. These periods of cohabitation were underwritten by the notion that the president had “domaine réservé” on foreign policy, security, defense, and intelligence.
In the three cases, the president and prime ministers held broadly similar views on foreign policy; but with RN in government and Macron in the Élysée Palace, things could be different.
Although foreign and defense policy in France have traditionally been the remit of the president, the lines defining the separation of powers appear to be vague enough to allow the prime minister to step in.
In one interview, Le Pen dismissed the French president's title of commander-in-chief as “an honorary title,” and argued that the real power, in particular over the budget, rested with the prime minister's government.
She added that Bardella “has no intention of picking a quarrel with Macron, but he has set red lines.”
While the final results of the French elections could have grave implications for Ukraine, there is one possibility that might ensure Paris’ continued support for the beleaguered nation, and that is the transformation of Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s hard-right prime minister.
Before coming to power in September 2022, Meloni had opposed sanctions on Russia, and there were fears that she could shatter the Western consensus on Ukraine by peddling a pro-Putin agenda.
But since becoming premier she has confounded many by backing Kyiv, arguing that “Ukrainians are defending the freedom and democracy upon which our civilization is based.”
Kyiv may hope Le Pen and RN will undergo a similar metamorphosis.
Le Pen’s nearest rival, a left-wing alliance, came in second with 28%.
This means that the RN, along with its allies, could have the 289 lawmakers needed for an absolute majority in France’s 577-seat National Assembly in the July 7 run-off vote.
The emphasis here is on “could” because it is clear that the RN’s opponents will put aside differences and work together in order to thwart the chances of France falling under the power of the far-right for the first time since the collaborationist Vichy regime was established in 1940.
Successful cooperation could stop the RN getting an absolute majority, although it might still be the strongest, and therefore most influential, party in parliament.
But, as it stands, the RN is in pole position to form a government. Its victory in the first round has turned French politics on its head, and this is a cause for concern for Ukraine.
To begin with, the party, and Le Pen, have a track record of being somewhat cuddly when it comes to Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin.
Le Pen has visited Russia a number of times and has received positive coverage in the press there, indicating that the Kremlin could well regard her and her party as useful assets.
Last year, a French parliamentary committee examining foreign interference in the country’s politics concluded that RN’s policy stances sometimes “echo the official language of Putin’s regime”.
Le Pen has also insisted that Crimea is Russian, and referred to its illegal annexation as a “reattachment”.
Softened position?
Perhaps worried that being seen as pro-Putin could undermine RN’s chances in the polls, the party has recently seemed keen to downplay and soften its position on Russia.
Jordan Bardella, RN’s president and candidate for prime minister, said last month that “Ukraine must be able to defend itself,” an indication that an RN government would maintain support for Kyiv.
He also suggested further foreign policy continuity on Ukraine, if an RN government is formed, by saying he did not “intend to call into question” France’s international defence commitments.
This could go some way to allay Ukrainian fears about France’s commitment to its defense. But Bardella also said that sending French troops to Ukraine, something that Macron has spoken of, is a “red line” he is not prepared to cross. As is allowing Ukraine to use long-range French-made weapons to strike targets in Russia.
There are also some who argue that a leopard can’t change its spots.
In an interview for the French radio broadcaster RFI, Nicolas Tenzer, a political philosophy teacher at the Sciences Po University in Paris, said that the RN had “never voted for a single resolution in favor of Ukraine” in either the French or European parliament.
He added that if RN won a majority in the National Assembly, it could block any budget support for Ukraine, which would result in the country being “completely sacrificed.”
Clash between president and PM?
Ukraine may also face problems if a new and unsettling power dynamic between the French president and prime minister appears under a RN government.
There have been three cases in the past when the president and prime minister came from different parties. These periods of cohabitation were underwritten by the notion that the president had “domaine réservé” on foreign policy, security, defense, and intelligence.
In the three cases, the president and prime ministers held broadly similar views on foreign policy; but with RN in government and Macron in the Élysée Palace, things could be different.
Although foreign and defense policy in France have traditionally been the remit of the president, the lines defining the separation of powers appear to be vague enough to allow the prime minister to step in.
In one interview, Le Pen dismissed the French president's title of commander-in-chief as “an honorary title,” and argued that the real power, in particular over the budget, rested with the prime minister's government.
She added that Bardella “has no intention of picking a quarrel with Macron, but he has set red lines.”
While the final results of the French elections could have grave implications for Ukraine, there is one possibility that might ensure Paris’ continued support for the beleaguered nation, and that is the transformation of Giorgia Meloni, Italy’s hard-right prime minister.
Before coming to power in September 2022, Meloni had opposed sanctions on Russia, and there were fears that she could shatter the Western consensus on Ukraine by peddling a pro-Putin agenda.
But since becoming premier she has confounded many by backing Kyiv, arguing that “Ukrainians are defending the freedom and democracy upon which our civilization is based.”
Kyiv may hope Le Pen and RN will undergo a similar metamorphosis.
Source: TVP World
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