Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, has traveled to Moldova to urge its citizens to vote 'yes' in a referendum on EU membership due to be held on October 20.
Along with her desire to see the country vote to join the bloc, the commission president also brought with her a handy sweetener in the form of a pledge to €1.8 billion in economic support.
While the money will come in handy it is unlikely to have a significant influence on the population given that Moldova, a tiny and impoverished former Soviet republic lying in south-eastern Europe, has long aspired to join the the EU. The problem, however, is has that the country has long been beset by problems since it declared independence in 1991, all of which have conspired to stymie the nation’s EU aspirations.
In fact, at one time it was possible to meet Moldovans who argued that the only way their homeland was ever going to join the bloc was by having it reabsorbed into Romania, the country that ruled Moldova until it was forced to cede the territory to the Soviet Union under the terms of notorious Molotov-Ribbentrop pact in 1940.
The biggest obstacle, by far, blocking Moldova’s road to membership is Transnistria; a sliver of land on the east bank of the River Dniester and bordering Ukraine. Populated by Russian speakers who feared being dominated by Moldova’s Romanian-speaking majority, Transnistria broke away from Moldova in 1991 after a brief conflict and has, since then, been a self-declared independent state recognized by no one.
The conflict was frozen by a 1992 ceasefire, which also led to the arrival of Russian peacekeepers, but the fact that it has remained unresolved ever since has long cast a shadow, not just over Moldova’s bid for EU membership but also over the country’s economy and security.
Just how the EU and Moldova plan to resolve the issue of Transnistria in the accession talks remains unclear. The issue is further complicated by the fact that Moldova was at one point dependent on Transnistria for over 70% of its energy needs. The break-away republic could provide this because it got cut-price gas from a Russian state eager to prop up an ally that has thrown numerous spanners in the works of EU enlargement.
This made Moldova especially vulnerable to Moscow’s pressure following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Eager to fuel discord in the country and stoke anger directed towards Maia Sandu, Moldova’s pro-Western president, Transnistria cut electricity supplies to Moldova in 2022 by some 73%, according to the European Policy Centre think tank.
That move had a withering effect on the country’s already battered economy. At the same time, it spurred Moldova on to shed its dependence on Russian/Transnistrian energy by developing plans to tap into the Romanian grid. Despite this drive, it still needs electricity from across the Dniester, and that means it has to carry on paying the bills that help keep Transnistria financially afloat.
But once Moldova is free of Tranistrian energy this will create another problem. Without the money it gets from Moldova for electricity, Transnistria faces a perilous economic future, and that could usher in yet more instability into a region already pressured to the maximum by the Ukraine war.
Such instability could offer opportunities for Russia to exploit divisions in Moldovan society between its Romanian-speaking majority, which accounts for around 80% of the country’s 2.6 million population and is generally pro-Western, and its Russian and Ukrainian-speaking minorities.
In the past, these divisions were easy to exploit owing to fears that a move westwards would add more woes to Moldova’s economy by disrupting ties with Transnistria. This tug-of-war between East and West troubled Moldova’s EU aspirations but now, while it still has the potential to disrupt, the forces pulling east are weakening.
The move away from Russian-sponsored energy has denied Moscow economic leverage, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted to any Moldovans who were inclined to sit on the fence over which way the country should swing the bloody and unpleasant realities of life under Russian rule or influence.
A desire to join the EU should also help Moldova get to grips with corruption. Graft and under-the-table dealings have plagued the country for decades, driving off investors, stifling economic growth and undermining public faith in governments, parties and state institutions.
In an indication of just how widespread the problem is, two weeks ago Moldova’s top Interpol official was arrested on a corruption charge along with four interior ministry employees.
The EU accession process requires prospective members to crack down on graft, and Sandu was elected in 2020 on an anti-corruption ticket.
In truth, rooting out corruption will be tough and has the potential to disrupt Moldova’s journey to join the club of Western nations. But with EU membership now a matter of when, not if, it, along with the Transnistria issue, will have to be resolved or ended one way or another.
While the money will come in handy it is unlikely to have a significant influence on the population given that Moldova, a tiny and impoverished former Soviet republic lying in south-eastern Europe, has long aspired to join the the EU. The problem, however, is has that the country has long been beset by problems since it declared independence in 1991, all of which have conspired to stymie the nation’s EU aspirations.
In fact, at one time it was possible to meet Moldovans who argued that the only way their homeland was ever going to join the bloc was by having it reabsorbed into Romania, the country that ruled Moldova until it was forced to cede the territory to the Soviet Union under the terms of notorious Molotov-Ribbentrop pact in 1940.
The biggest obstacle, by far, blocking Moldova’s road to membership is Transnistria; a sliver of land on the east bank of the River Dniester and bordering Ukraine. Populated by Russian speakers who feared being dominated by Moldova’s Romanian-speaking majority, Transnistria broke away from Moldova in 1991 after a brief conflict and has, since then, been a self-declared independent state recognized by no one.
The conflict was frozen by a 1992 ceasefire, which also led to the arrival of Russian peacekeepers, but the fact that it has remained unresolved ever since has long cast a shadow, not just over Moldova’s bid for EU membership but also over the country’s economy and security.
Just how the EU and Moldova plan to resolve the issue of Transnistria in the accession talks remains unclear. The issue is further complicated by the fact that Moldova was at one point dependent on Transnistria for over 70% of its energy needs. The break-away republic could provide this because it got cut-price gas from a Russian state eager to prop up an ally that has thrown numerous spanners in the works of EU enlargement.
This made Moldova especially vulnerable to Moscow’s pressure following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Eager to fuel discord in the country and stoke anger directed towards Maia Sandu, Moldova’s pro-Western president, Transnistria cut electricity supplies to Moldova in 2022 by some 73%, according to the European Policy Centre think tank.
That move had a withering effect on the country’s already battered economy. At the same time, it spurred Moldova on to shed its dependence on Russian/Transnistrian energy by developing plans to tap into the Romanian grid. Despite this drive, it still needs electricity from across the Dniester, and that means it has to carry on paying the bills that help keep Transnistria financially afloat.
But once Moldova is free of Tranistrian energy this will create another problem. Without the money it gets from Moldova for electricity, Transnistria faces a perilous economic future, and that could usher in yet more instability into a region already pressured to the maximum by the Ukraine war.
Such instability could offer opportunities for Russia to exploit divisions in Moldovan society between its Romanian-speaking majority, which accounts for around 80% of the country’s 2.6 million population and is generally pro-Western, and its Russian and Ukrainian-speaking minorities.
In the past, these divisions were easy to exploit owing to fears that a move westwards would add more woes to Moldova’s economy by disrupting ties with Transnistria. This tug-of-war between East and West troubled Moldova’s EU aspirations but now, while it still has the potential to disrupt, the forces pulling east are weakening.
The move away from Russian-sponsored energy has denied Moscow economic leverage, while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted to any Moldovans who were inclined to sit on the fence over which way the country should swing the bloody and unpleasant realities of life under Russian rule or influence.
A desire to join the EU should also help Moldova get to grips with corruption. Graft and under-the-table dealings have plagued the country for decades, driving off investors, stifling economic growth and undermining public faith in governments, parties and state institutions.
In an indication of just how widespread the problem is, two weeks ago Moldova’s top Interpol official was arrested on a corruption charge along with four interior ministry employees.
The EU accession process requires prospective members to crack down on graft, and Sandu was elected in 2020 on an anti-corruption ticket.
In truth, rooting out corruption will be tough and has the potential to disrupt Moldova’s journey to join the club of Western nations. But with EU membership now a matter of when, not if, it, along with the Transnistria issue, will have to be resolved or ended one way or another.
Source: TVP WORLD
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