Following trips by Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang and Hanoi in June, TVP World spoke to Witold Rodkiewicz of the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) about what the visits mean in the broader geopolitical context.
Rodkiewicz, a senior fellow at the OSW’s Russia Department, highlighted that though the two visits had similar PR, they were very different. The meetings in North Korea with Kim Jong Un were about “scare tactics” and making good on the Kremlin’s threats to arm the West’s enemies, he said. Putin had earlier announced he would make advanced weaponry available to adversaries of the U.S. and its allies in retaliation for them permitting Ukraine to strike targets in Russia using weapons the West has supplied.
North Korea has supported Russia in its war on Ukraine by providing military hardware, and Rodkiewicz suggested that a mutual defense treaty signed by the two leaders was “payback for this help.”
He described as “striking” the “very restrained reaction of the Chinese to the military assistance treaty.”
He pointed out that Pyongyang has a very similar agreement with Beijing and that while the Chinese expressed approbation, they were “cautiously approving” and lacked enthusiasm. He ascribed this to Putin encouraging North Korea’s leadership to be “more assertive and more provocative towards the Americans” and thereby increasing the risk of a “huge conflagration in northeast Asia, on the Korean Peninsula.”
Putin’s visit to Vietnam had a very different emphasis, Rodkiewicz said, explaining that the two countries have a tradition of working together that stretches back to the post-World War II era.
“But the situation is completely new now for Vietnam,” he explained, adding that its main threat now is China, a de facto close ally of Russia. For this reason, Rodkiewicz said, Hanoi has been diversifying its foreign and security policies in recent years. He made the point that since the war in Ukraine started, Russia’s trade with countries that did not join in Western sanctions against Moscow, such as China and Turkey, has increased significantly. Meanwhile, trade with Vietnam has “basically collapsed” from $7 billion to $5 billion.
Rodkiewicz said Putin had vented his frustration during the trip over “difficulties with payments,” and explained that this is due to Hanoi’s reluctance to violate U.S. sanctions.
“So this trip was an attempt to persuade Vietnam to become more cooperative and stop being obstructive,” he said. “And this was not really successful as his frustration and de facto accusations… demonstrated.”
The OSW senior fellow went on to make the point that the Vietnamese have been increasingly turning to the U.S., India, and other countries for their security needs: “Very telling is that Vietnam practically stopped buying weapons from Russia… basically since 2018 there has been a very significant sharp drop in purchases of Russian military equipment by Vietnam.”
North Korea has supported Russia in its war on Ukraine by providing military hardware, and Rodkiewicz suggested that a mutual defense treaty signed by the two leaders was “payback for this help.”
He described as “striking” the “very restrained reaction of the Chinese to the military assistance treaty.”
He pointed out that Pyongyang has a very similar agreement with Beijing and that while the Chinese expressed approbation, they were “cautiously approving” and lacked enthusiasm. He ascribed this to Putin encouraging North Korea’s leadership to be “more assertive and more provocative towards the Americans” and thereby increasing the risk of a “huge conflagration in northeast Asia, on the Korean Peninsula.”
Putin’s visit to Vietnam had a very different emphasis, Rodkiewicz said, explaining that the two countries have a tradition of working together that stretches back to the post-World War II era.
“But the situation is completely new now for Vietnam,” he explained, adding that its main threat now is China, a de facto close ally of Russia. For this reason, Rodkiewicz said, Hanoi has been diversifying its foreign and security policies in recent years. He made the point that since the war in Ukraine started, Russia’s trade with countries that did not join in Western sanctions against Moscow, such as China and Turkey, has increased significantly. Meanwhile, trade with Vietnam has “basically collapsed” from $7 billion to $5 billion.
Rodkiewicz said Putin had vented his frustration during the trip over “difficulties with payments,” and explained that this is due to Hanoi’s reluctance to violate U.S. sanctions.
“So this trip was an attempt to persuade Vietnam to become more cooperative and stop being obstructive,” he said. “And this was not really successful as his frustration and de facto accusations… demonstrated.”
The OSW senior fellow went on to make the point that the Vietnamese have been increasingly turning to the U.S., India, and other countries for their security needs: “Very telling is that Vietnam practically stopped buying weapons from Russia… basically since 2018 there has been a very significant sharp drop in purchases of Russian military equipment by Vietnam.”
Source: TVP World
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