Russia seems to have managed the human and materiel losses it has been incurring on the Ukrainian frontlines much owing to the increased mobilization and a change of tactics, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a U.S.-based think tank indicated in their latest report.
Over the last week, Russian forces have conducted several mechanized attacks in the Donetsk oblast. This represents a shift from earlier Russian attack patterns, which primarily relied on infantry and resulted in higher personnel losses.
“The observed new trend in which Russian forces are now employing more vehicles than was the previously observed standard for tactical assaults suggests that the Russian military may no longer be as constrained or concerned about its armored vehicle and tank losses,” the report states.
The think tank also references estimates from the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which announced in February that Russia still has a sufficient number of lower-quality armored vehicles in storage to replenish losses for about three more years.
“The recent intensification of mechanized attacks in eastern Ukraine indicates that the Russian command appears to believe that Russia is capable of compensating for losses in these intensified mechanized assaults while preparing for a forecasted offensive effort in Summer 2024,” the ISW assesses.IISS data is used to inform @Newsweek’s latest discussion on Russian military strategy and tanks losses during the invasion.
— IISS News (@IISS_org) April 5, 2024
Read more. https://t.co/7Kx5BphYKF
Mobilization6/ Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka amidst ongoing positional fighting along the entire line of contact on April 5.
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 6, 2024
Russia’s defense industry continues to mobilize to meet the Russian military’s needs in Ukraine,
Furthermore, according to the institute, Russia has effectively used ongoing covert mobilization efforts to replenish its growing personnel losses.
The ISW report recalls Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) estimates from January stating that Russia is recruiting about 30,000 people into its army each month.
The institute added that the Kremlin is unlikely to opt for an unpopular mobilization until human or material losses reach a point that cannot be compensated for by covert mobilization and the current production capacities of the defense industry.
Ukrainian attacks
Meanwhile, Ukrainian media, citing sources in the HUR and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), reported that Ukrainian drones destroyed six unspecified aircraft in Morozovsk and damaged three Tu-95 strategic bombers and two Su-25 aircraft.
The ISW recalled that Russia typically uses Tu-95 bombers based in Engels to launch bombings on Ukraine with Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles. In 2023, Russia had about 60 Tu-95 aircraft, so the ISW considers it “noteworthy” if the destruction of three of these planes, representing five percent of the entire fleet, is confirmed.NEW: Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted one of the largest series of drone strikes against military facilities within Russia, targeting at least four Russian airbases, on the night of April 4 to 5. (🧵1/5) pic.twitter.com/gMEs8PBIw1
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 6, 2024
