With Finland and Sweden joining NATO and Russia’s threat of deploying more forces on the Baltic and Finnish borders, attention will certainly be focused more on the north, Tony Lawrence from the Estonian think tank International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) told the Polish Press Agency (PAP).
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said during his visit to Vilnius on Monday that “the center of gravity, when it comes to European security, has shifted strongly to the north.”
“The ‘Nordic plus’ format with Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, as a de facto European partner with Poland, as well as with active participation of Denmark, also Great Britain in some initiatives, all show that it is possible to build large, effective political blocs that speak with one voice on geopolitical matters and, above all - concerning Russia's aggression towards Ukraine - and will act in exactly the same direction,” said the Polish Prime Minister.
“I’m not sure if ‘center of gravity’ is the right term - it has quite a specific meaning in military thinking - but I fully agree with the essence of this sentence,” Lawrence emphasized.
“However, this does not necessarily mean that the most likely direction of Russian actions will be the north. Russia is opportunistic - if it sees weaknesses and vulnerabilities elsewhere, for example in the southeast of NATO, it may try to exploit them,” added ICDS’s expert.
“Russia is heavily involved in Ukraine, which means that the prospect of any large-scale military action in the Nordic-Baltic region is small,” reminded the expert.
“The Kremlin still perceives the West as an adversary and continues to attack NATO allies in the region with hybrid means, including military instruments below the threshold of armed conflict. Countries in the region anticipate that after the war in Ukraine, Russia - probably quite quickly - will rebuild its armed forces. Therefore, the main effort is to build a defensive posture that would deter Russia from military aggression in this region in the future,” explained the analyst.
“Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia allocate huge sums for defense, but they will still need NATO for defense and deterring military threats on a larger scale,” Lawrence pointed out.
“The ‘Nordic plus’ format with Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, as a de facto European partner with Poland, as well as with active participation of Denmark, also Great Britain in some initiatives, all show that it is possible to build large, effective political blocs that speak with one voice on geopolitical matters and, above all - concerning Russia's aggression towards Ukraine - and will act in exactly the same direction,” said the Polish Prime Minister.
“I’m not sure if ‘center of gravity’ is the right term - it has quite a specific meaning in military thinking - but I fully agree with the essence of this sentence,” Lawrence emphasized.
“However, this does not necessarily mean that the most likely direction of Russian actions will be the north. Russia is opportunistic - if it sees weaknesses and vulnerabilities elsewhere, for example in the southeast of NATO, it may try to exploit them,” added ICDS’s expert.
“Russia is heavily involved in Ukraine, which means that the prospect of any large-scale military action in the Nordic-Baltic region is small,” reminded the expert.
“The Kremlin still perceives the West as an adversary and continues to attack NATO allies in the region with hybrid means, including military instruments below the threshold of armed conflict. Countries in the region anticipate that after the war in Ukraine, Russia - probably quite quickly - will rebuild its armed forces. Therefore, the main effort is to build a defensive posture that would deter Russia from military aggression in this region in the future,” explained the analyst.
“Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia allocate huge sums for defense, but they will still need NATO for defense and deterring military threats on a larger scale,” Lawrence pointed out.
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