Ukrainian intelligence says that Russian troops in occupied territories amount to approximately 470,000. The Kremlin, however, lacks sufficient domestic ammunition production to meet its needs in its war on Ukraine yet Vladimir Putin has not given up on his hopes of subjugating the country, Western officials said on Wednesday.
Russia’s military industry is also struggling with the impact of sanctions, the officials said, adding that the country’s inability to access Western components is undermining its ability to produce new systems and repair old ones.
The Western officials’ summary of the situation comes as the Ukraine war enters its third year, with Russia in the ascendancy after taking control of the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka and amid warnings that Ukraine is also running out of ammunition.
“We do not believe Russia has a meaningful plan beyond continuing to fight in the expectation that Russian manpower and equipment numbers will eventually tell,” an official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Ukraine’s shortages of supplies have come into focus with its reliance on Western support for money and equipment, especially with political wrangling in Washington holding up USD 61 billion in U.S. aid.
However, the Western officials said Russia too was suffering problems as sanctions hit military production hard, causing delays and putting up costs, meaning it could not keep up with the war’s demands.
A consequence was Moscow requisitioning military equipment that had been intended for foreign allies, they said. Last March, the Indian Air Force said Russia had failed to deliver vital supplies it had committed to the Indian military because of the Ukraine war.
Despite the problems, Putin's aims remained unchanged, the officials cautioned, saying they did not believe Russia had given up on its goals of subjugating Ukraine.
Nearly half a million.
The current strength of the Russian land forces grouping in Ukraine is approximately 470,000 soldiers, said Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) representative General Vadym Skibicki in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday.
"If we talk about what has changed during this time, this is the size of the group deployed on our territory. Now the ground component, the ground part of the group, which is located on the territory of Ukraine, is about 470,000 military personnel,” Skibitsky said in an exclusive interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“Today, a group of forces of the Russian Guard [Rosgvardia] has been deployed in the temporarily occupied territories. This is almost 33,000 military personnel. These are the people who ensure the activities of the occupation authorities, the protection of strategic objects and, if necessary, can carry out defense tasks specifically in the temporarily occupied territories,” Skibitsky said.
“The grouping of troops guarding the state border in the Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts was strengthened on the eve of the presidential elections" Skibicki informed.
According to the general, another change that has occurred over the past two years is the deployment by the Russians on their own territory of the so-called “state border protection units”. The general emphasized that this is due to Russians’ concern that Ukraine “will be more active, will carry out certain actions [also] on the territory of the Russian Federation.”
“Perhaps this is necessary: to transfer the war to Russian territory. There they concentrated a group of about 30,000 military personnel. Recently, they were also reinforced by units of the 116th brigade of the Russian Guard, which was transferred. Three battalions were transferred from our Mariupol to the Belgorod region. As they also admit, in order to ensure the security and holding of elections of the eternally living Putin. These are the changes that mainly occurred in the number of the ground component," the intelligence service said.
The HUR representative also noted that an important change over the past two years is the isolation of the Black Sea Fleet, as all the main enemy warships are currently in Novorossiysk.
“Today we have fully ensured the ability to control in terms of fire, the ability to strike at the Black Sea Fleet if it enters the northwestern part. And this gave us the opportunity to restore the operation of the sea corridor,” he said.
The Western officials’ summary of the situation comes as the Ukraine war enters its third year, with Russia in the ascendancy after taking control of the Ukrainian town of Avdiivka and amid warnings that Ukraine is also running out of ammunition.
“We do not believe Russia has a meaningful plan beyond continuing to fight in the expectation that Russian manpower and equipment numbers will eventually tell,” an official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Ukraine’s shortages of supplies have come into focus with its reliance on Western support for money and equipment, especially with political wrangling in Washington holding up USD 61 billion in U.S. aid.
However, the Western officials said Russia too was suffering problems as sanctions hit military production hard, causing delays and putting up costs, meaning it could not keep up with the war’s demands.
A consequence was Moscow requisitioning military equipment that had been intended for foreign allies, they said. Last March, the Indian Air Force said Russia had failed to deliver vital supplies it had committed to the Indian military because of the Ukraine war.
Despite the problems, Putin's aims remained unchanged, the officials cautioned, saying they did not believe Russia had given up on its goals of subjugating Ukraine.
Nearly half a million.
The current strength of the Russian land forces grouping in Ukraine is approximately 470,000 soldiers, said Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) representative General Vadym Skibicki in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday.
"If we talk about what has changed during this time, this is the size of the group deployed on our territory. Now the ground component, the ground part of the group, which is located on the territory of Ukraine, is about 470,000 military personnel,” Skibitsky said in an exclusive interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“Today, a group of forces of the Russian Guard [Rosgvardia] has been deployed in the temporarily occupied territories. This is almost 33,000 military personnel. These are the people who ensure the activities of the occupation authorities, the protection of strategic objects and, if necessary, can carry out defense tasks specifically in the temporarily occupied territories,” Skibitsky said.
“The grouping of troops guarding the state border in the Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts was strengthened on the eve of the presidential elections" Skibicki informed.
According to the general, another change that has occurred over the past two years is the deployment by the Russians on their own territory of the so-called “state border protection units”. The general emphasized that this is due to Russians’ concern that Ukraine “will be more active, will carry out certain actions [also] on the territory of the Russian Federation.”
“Perhaps this is necessary: to transfer the war to Russian territory. There they concentrated a group of about 30,000 military personnel. Recently, they were also reinforced by units of the 116th brigade of the Russian Guard, which was transferred. Three battalions were transferred from our Mariupol to the Belgorod region. As they also admit, in order to ensure the security and holding of elections of the eternally living Putin. These are the changes that mainly occurred in the number of the ground component," the intelligence service said.
The HUR representative also noted that an important change over the past two years is the isolation of the Black Sea Fleet, as all the main enemy warships are currently in Novorossiysk.
“Today we have fully ensured the ability to control in terms of fire, the ability to strike at the Black Sea Fleet if it enters the northwestern part. And this gave us the opportunity to restore the operation of the sea corridor,” he said.
Source: Reuters, PAP, Interfax
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