A far-right wing figurehead from the anti-Ukrainian Confederation alliance has surged to second place in Poland’s presidential race, overtaking Karol Nawrocki, a candidate backed by the populist Law & Justice party.
According to a recent poll by SW Research for weekly news magazine Wprost, Sławomir Mentzen’s support has climbed significantly, reflecting a shift in the political landscape ahead of the May 18 presidential elections.
The poll published on Friday was conducted on a representative group of adult internet users and posed the question: “If the presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for?”
It revealed that Mentzen's backing increased by 5.8 percentage points, bringing his support to 18.9%.
In comparison, Nawrocki’s backing dipped slightly, down by 0.5 percentage points to 16.5%.
Mentzen's rise has come at the expense of Nawrocki, who, while officially an independent candidate, is strongly endorsed by the Law & Justice party.
Rafał Trzaskowski, from the current government’s liberal Civic Coalition, continues to dominate the field, securing 33.6% of support, a modest increase of 0.7 percentage points from a January survey.
Trzaskowski enjoys strong backing from women, older voters, and residents of larger cities, according to the poll.
But Polish political scientist Olgierd Annusewicz told Wprost that the poll should be treated with caution as it was only conducted among internet users, a demographic not fully representative of Poland's population.
He said: “The Internet very often distorts the image of reality [...] not all Poles use the Internet, not all do it with the same intensity, which applies to a large extent to the core electorate of Law and Justice, i.e. older people from small towns.
“What is interesting about the survey is that both Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia gained the support they maintain in classic surveys.
“Based on the results, we can also conclude that Sławomir Mentzen is very strong on the Internet, and Karol Nawrocki is simply weak,” he added.
The poll published on Friday was conducted on a representative group of adult internet users and posed the question: “If the presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for?”
It revealed that Mentzen's backing increased by 5.8 percentage points, bringing his support to 18.9%.
In comparison, Nawrocki’s backing dipped slightly, down by 0.5 percentage points to 16.5%.
Mentzen's rise has come at the expense of Nawrocki, who, while officially an independent candidate, is strongly endorsed by the Law & Justice party.
Rafał Trzaskowski, from the current government’s liberal Civic Coalition, continues to dominate the field, securing 33.6% of support, a modest increase of 0.7 percentage points from a January survey.
Trzaskowski enjoys strong backing from women, older voters, and residents of larger cities, according to the poll.
But Polish political scientist Olgierd Annusewicz told Wprost that the poll should be treated with caution as it was only conducted among internet users, a demographic not fully representative of Poland's population.
He said: “The Internet very often distorts the image of reality [...] not all Poles use the Internet, not all do it with the same intensity, which applies to a large extent to the core electorate of Law and Justice, i.e. older people from small towns.
“What is interesting about the survey is that both Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia gained the support they maintain in classic surveys.
“Based on the results, we can also conclude that Sławomir Mentzen is very strong on the Internet, and Karol Nawrocki is simply weak,” he added.
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