Russian officials have formally rejected the possibility of any ceasefire deal that does not involve the “complete capitulation of Ukraine and the West,” a U.S. think tank has said.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote that Russian officials had made statements on the third anniversary of the war’s outbreak on Monday, “further underscoring Russia's unwillingness to make compromises during future peace negotiations.”
Moscow’s apparent determination to adhere to its original war aims could pose a significant challenge to the Trump administration’s attempts to broker an end to the war, given that peace plans generally involve all sides making compromises.
The institute also cited recent surveys as showing the Russian public is “increasingly supportive of Russia continuing the war in Ukraine” until its objectives are met, despite feeling the economic effects of sanctions.
The ISW said the opinion polls cast doubt on Vladimir Putin’s “ability to continue to balance ‘butter and guns’ at home in the medium- to long-term.” The Washington-based non-profit added that the Russian president “has shown no indication that he is rethinking his determination to compel Ukraine to surrender.”
On the war’s third anniversary, Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said Moscow would cease its aggression only if peace talks bring about a “solid, stable result that suits Russia” and account for the “realities” of the battlefield, the ISW said.
Lavrov also stressed the importance of any agreement including a ban on Ukraine’s future NATO membership. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stressed on Monday the importance of any agreement addressing the war’s “root causes,” which he said included NATO’s post-1991 eastern expansion.
Ryabkov told the Russian news agency RIA Novosti that any deal that did not address the issue would lead to a “quick resumption” of hostilities.
In December last year, Lavrov said the war had been caused by what he said was NATO’s violation of commitments not to enlarge eastward and its subsequent “aggressive absorption” of areas bordering Russia. He said another reason for Moscow’s aggression had been Kyiv’s alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians in the country, the ISW wrote.
Officials in Moscow continue to insist that Ukraine withdraw its forces from all territory under Kyiv’s control in the east and south in line with demands made by Putin last June as conditions for peace.
The ISW cited Ryabkov as describing the proposal, along with Ukraine’s abandonment of NATO accession aspirations, as “significant compromises” that could form the basis of an agreement. The ISW reported Ryabkov as saying the demand demonstrated Moscow’s desire to find a solution that “balances” Russian and Ukrainian interests.
However, the think tank wrote that Putin had “called for Ukraine to concede significant areas in exchange for no Russian concessions.”
