Michael Carpenter, a senior U.S. diplomat with experience in European affairs, believes that the media have latched onto the idea that Ukraine must receive permission from Washington to use U.S.-manufactured long-range weapons against targets in Russia to win the war, but he thinks there is a much better and effective solution.
Carpenter is a former United States Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), special assistant to the president of the United States and senior director for Europe at the U.S. National Security Council.
Speaking to Carpenter on the sidelines of the Warsaw Security Forum, TVP World asked the former Ambassador to OSCE why is the White House continuing to refuse giving Kyiv permission to use long-range systems provided by the U.S. to strike military targets inside Russia.
Carpenter stressed that Washington continues to support Ukraine militarily, including another $8 billion in assistance pledged to Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy during his recent visit to the U.S. The diplomat believes that there are better ways to support Ukraine in its fight and that “the long-range strike permissions into Russia [...] frankly, is not a game changer on the battlefield.”
Speaking to Carpenter on the sidelines of the Warsaw Security Forum, TVP World asked the former Ambassador to OSCE why is the White House continuing to refuse giving Kyiv permission to use long-range systems provided by the U.S. to strike military targets inside Russia.
Carpenter stressed that Washington continues to support Ukraine militarily, including another $8 billion in assistance pledged to Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy during his recent visit to the U.S. The diplomat believes that there are better ways to support Ukraine in its fight and that “the long-range strike permissions into Russia [...] frankly, is not a game changer on the battlefield.”
He said: “What Ukraine needs right now is to mobilize additional men to man the front lines. It needs training and equipping of its new brigades, and it badly, desperately needs air defense systems.”
In order to facilitate that, U.S. President Biden decided to bring together leaders of countries supporting Ukraine to participate in a summit that will be held on October 12 at the U.S. base in Ramstein, Germany, and intends to “challenge” other leaders to “come to this meeting with concrete pledges of support for Ukraine.”
Carpenter believes that instead of focusing on long-range capabilities that Kyiv can receive from the West, the focus should rather be on helping Ukraine develop its own, domestically produced capabilities.
“Because when you look at the cost curve, this is how Ukraine wins this war by being able to attack C2 [Command and Control] nodes, logistics, airfields,” he said, but added that these targets are “not within the immediate vicinity of the border, which is the ATACMS range, but beyond that, and this [domestically-produced drones] is the capability that allows them to do that.”
There is no pressing need, therefore, to discuss the use of U.S.-manufactured long-range weapons if Ukrainian-manufactured systems have proven effective at striking targets deep inside Russian territory, he said.
In order to facilitate that, U.S. President Biden decided to bring together leaders of countries supporting Ukraine to participate in a summit that will be held on October 12 at the U.S. base in Ramstein, Germany, and intends to “challenge” other leaders to “come to this meeting with concrete pledges of support for Ukraine.”
Carpenter believes that instead of focusing on long-range capabilities that Kyiv can receive from the West, the focus should rather be on helping Ukraine develop its own, domestically produced capabilities.
“Because when you look at the cost curve, this is how Ukraine wins this war by being able to attack C2 [Command and Control] nodes, logistics, airfields,” he said, but added that these targets are “not within the immediate vicinity of the border, which is the ATACMS range, but beyond that, and this [domestically-produced drones] is the capability that allows them to do that.”
There is no pressing need, therefore, to discuss the use of U.S.-manufactured long-range weapons if Ukrainian-manufactured systems have proven effective at striking targets deep inside Russian territory, he said.
“For me, this is exactly where Ukraine has a comparative advantage. They are so innovative in being able to look at the battlefield picture, to innovate those drones with software, with other capabilities, and then to deploy them in real-time into Russia.”
And considering that some Ukrainian strikes made using domestically-produced capabilities have managed to reach targes “as the Arctic Circle,” Carpenter said that “This is exactly where their money needs to go. Not into permissions to use ATACMS missiles across the border,” adding that U.S. provided systems are best employed in striking Russian airfields in occupied Crimea and Donbas.
He said: “That’s where they should be focusing those capabilities,” stressing that providing financing to Ukraine that would enable it to further develop these cheaper solutions is more “sustainable from an economic perspective as well as from a military perspective” and that “investment into Ukraine's own defense industrial base is where the future of this war lies.”
And considering that some Ukrainian strikes made using domestically-produced capabilities have managed to reach targes “as the Arctic Circle,” Carpenter said that “This is exactly where their money needs to go. Not into permissions to use ATACMS missiles across the border,” adding that U.S. provided systems are best employed in striking Russian airfields in occupied Crimea and Donbas.
He said: “That’s where they should be focusing those capabilities,” stressing that providing financing to Ukraine that would enable it to further develop these cheaper solutions is more “sustainable from an economic perspective as well as from a military perspective” and that “investment into Ukraine's own defense industrial base is where the future of this war lies.”
Another way of helping Ukraine that Zelenskyy has been pushing for, is having Polish air defenses stationed on Polish soil shoot down Russian missiles and drones while they are over Ukraine. While Poland has been open to the idea, this also requires coordination with allies, including the U.S. But Carpenter believes that this solution too is not particularly feasible.
He said: “Poland’s not going to be able to shoot down incoming threats to Ukraine from Polish territory. We’re talking about hypotheticals here that don’t make any sense. [...] And it's not to Ukraine's advantage because what they need is capabilities on the front lines.”
Carpenter said that instead, at the Ramstein meeting the U.S. will encourage Poland, as well as Ukraine’s other allies, can donate weapons systems to Ukraine to be used to better effect on the frontlines
He said: “Poland’s not going to be able to shoot down incoming threats to Ukraine from Polish territory. We’re talking about hypotheticals here that don’t make any sense. [...] And it's not to Ukraine's advantage because what they need is capabilities on the front lines.”
Carpenter said that instead, at the Ramstein meeting the U.S. will encourage Poland, as well as Ukraine’s other allies, can donate weapons systems to Ukraine to be used to better effect on the frontlines
He did not want to speculate on what will be the policy of the future White House administration regarding assisting Ukraine but said that for the upcoming months, financial assistance amounting to $61 billion is secured, but added that “the critical undertaking for the next administration is going to be to secure additional financial means for Ukraine, obviously in partnership with our with our allies.”
The diplomat also believes that Washington’s European allies and partners should do more to apply pressure on Russia’s allies, especially China.
“Look, you can’t have a relationship with the PRC [People’s Republic of China] and not understand and not be vocal about the fact that the PRC is not just enabling Russia’s war effort against Ukraine,” he said, adding that by providing Moscow with “propellants, [...] machine tools, the optics”, Beijing is “creating a long-term security challenge for Europe, for Europe’s security.”
“Everybody should be concerned about this. And European leaders should be traveling to Beijing and raising their voices about the concerns they have with this.”
The diplomat also believes that Washington’s European allies and partners should do more to apply pressure on Russia’s allies, especially China.
“Look, you can’t have a relationship with the PRC [People’s Republic of China] and not understand and not be vocal about the fact that the PRC is not just enabling Russia’s war effort against Ukraine,” he said, adding that by providing Moscow with “propellants, [...] machine tools, the optics”, Beijing is “creating a long-term security challenge for Europe, for Europe’s security.”
“Everybody should be concerned about this. And European leaders should be traveling to Beijing and raising their voices about the concerns they have with this.”
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