Politics

Ukraine Victory Plan aims to ‘guide’ Putin to talks through force

A fundamental element of the Victory Plan, it appears, is for Ukraine to have the ability to make life so miserable for Russia’s army that at some point its generals tap Putin on the shoulder and tell him they can’t win the war. Photo:
A fundamental element of the Victory Plan, it appears, is for Ukraine to have the ability to make life so miserable for Russia’s army that at some point its generals tap Putin on the shoulder and tell him they can’t win the war. Photo: Ihor Kuznietsov/Novyny LIVE/Global Images Ukraine, Kremlin Press Office / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images
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Maria Nazarova pulled no punches. Getting up to address a panel of politicians including the foreign ministers of Poland, Ukraine and Lithuania, the combat medic vented her frustration over Western prevarication when it comes to supplies of military equipment, and the right to use them.

For her, Ukraine’s shortage of munitions and constant delays in arms deliveries have clear and bloody consequences.

“The best medicine is artillery because it means fewer casualties,” she said at a recent international conference in Kyiv.

“One day of postponing something is not that we kill less Russians is that we bury more Ukrainians. You have to think about time.”

Her passionate words reflected mounting frustration in Ukraine over Western attitudes to the supply of military equipment and, in particular, the refusal to grant Kyiv permission to use long-range, Western-made weapons against targets deep inside Russia.

Nazarova’s comments came at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) Conference, an annual event that pulls in some of Central and Eastern Europe’s big political players.

Speaking just an hour before her at the same venue, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, said he had heard the words “we’re working on it” too many times in his conversations with Ukraine’s partners on supplies and permissions.
"Anyone who simply sees on the map from where Russia strikes every day, where Russia prepares forces, where Russia keeps reserves, where it locates military facilities and what logistics it uses, obviously understands what long-range means for Ukraine,” he said.

“We talked about it in detail with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who were recently in Kyiv. I hope that after our conversation, there can be no more unanswered questions about why Ukraine needs sufficient long-range capability."

Added urgency

The permission to strike deep into Russia has long been a Ukrainian desire but in recent weeks it has taken on more urgency.

This is because Zelenskyy present his “Victory Plan” this week to Joe Biden in Washington. While the plan itself remains under wraps, what is now clear is that Zelenskyy wants to present it from a position of strength, and for that Ukraine needs to be hitting Russia hard.

Addressing the YES conference, Zelenskyy said that “what is needed to end the war is force”, adding that “Ukraine has to be strong enough to prevail”.

A fundamental element of the Victory Plan, it appears, is for Ukraine to have the ability to make life so miserable for Russia’s army that at some point its generals tap Putin on the shoulder and tell him they can’t win the war.

Putin has to be, as Zelenskyy said, “guided to peace” by force. Military power will give Ukraine leverage when it comes to negotiations over any peace settlement.

So much, it seems, depends on Biden allowing Ukraine to use Western-made, long-range weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia.
This permission, so far, has remained elusive. Expectations that it was imminent were high just before Blinken and Lammy pitched up in Kyiv earlier this month, but instead of getting the green light to vaporize distant targets in Russia, the Ukrainians got more of the we’re-working-on-it attitude so lamented by Zelenskyy.

US still inflexible

And while pressure is mounting on the Biden administration, not just by Ukraine but also allies such as the UK and Poland, it still appears unwavering.

This inflexibility could also result from the grim warnings of war and escalation trickling out of the Kremlin. Putin has been happy to ratchet up tensions by dropping hints of nuclear conflict numerous times since his army piled into Ukraine in 2022. Now is no different.

But even if Ukraine were to get the permission it wants, missiles may fall short of the objective of driving Putin to the peace table.

Experts point out that Russia has probably moved some of its more valuable military assets further away from Ukraine just in case Kyiv gets the go-ahead. While this will limit the operational capabilities of Russian aircraft and stretch supply lines, it should not cause Moscow too much of a headache.

‘You cannot win a war with missiles strikes’

Ukraine could also lack the number of Western-made missiles needed to launch the withering volume of attacks required to break the Kremlin’s will. Other Western weapons systems such as main battle tanks have arrived in Ukraine surrounded by “game-changer” hype. But while proving to be formidable on the battlefield, these have not been enough to end the conflict.
“You cannot win a war with missiles strikes,” one senior Ukrainian Army officer, who wished to remain anonymous, told TVP World, pouring cold water on the ability of missiles to achieve strategic goals. “If that was the case, Russia would have won long ago. To win you need boots on the ground.”

But Ukraine lacks boots; hence its desire for munitions and weapons systems.

Some military experts have suggested that Ukrainian home-grown systems could fill the void if the U.S. continues to say “no”.

The recently unveiled, jet-powered Palianytsia missile-drone is a case in point. With a range of 700 kilometers, it can hit numerous Russian targets far from the front, and it also comes with a price tag of “just” $1 million a unit, making it feasible to produce them in the quantities needed.

Zelenskyy has also said that Ukraine has tested a home-grown ballistic missile. But just when this, along with the Palianytsia, will begin to pulverise Russian hardware remains unclear.

It is possible that a combination of increasingly advanced Ukrainian weapons and Western-made arms, subject to the current restrictions but supplied in abundance, could inflict the misery on Russia’s forces needed to make the Victory Plan viable.

But even if it fails on this front, the plan might have another goal in that it will demonstrate to the U.S. that Ukraine is trying to seek peace.

“Ukraine does not want to be seen as an obstacle to peace,” a diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous, told TVP World. And this could be important if Donald Trump returns to the White House following the U.S. presidential elections in November.

“The plan, which will probably be rejected by the Russians, could put Trump on the defensive. It shows Ukraine is trying to achieve peace, while Russia is not.”
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