While Taylor Swift continues her ‘Eras’ tour, Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, is on what could be called his ‘reset’ tour.
While his tour of European capitals, which this week took him first to Berlin and now to Paris, is small fry compared to the sequined fireworks of Swift’s worldwide mega blast, for the UK and the EU it is of significance because the “reset” in question is Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with Brussels.
Since Labour’s victory in the British general election in July, Starmer has made it clear that he wants to improve ties with Europe and seek a better trade deal than that set out in the 2020 Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) negotiated with Brussels by Borish Johnson.
Last week, the prime minister said that he was “absolutely clear” that his government wanted to reset relations although, in almost the same breath, he added: “That does not mean reversing Brexit or re-entering the single market or the customs union.”
The reasons for Starmer’s eagerness to cuddle up to his continental counterparts are complex.
There is the basic need to smooth the feathers left ruffled by years of a Conservative government that sometimes had an antagonistic approach to European relations; in short, everybody needs to get on. Meanwhile the bloody reality of the Ukraine war has also hammered home the need for European solidarity and cooperation.
British economic woes
But the UK’s economic situation is, perhaps, the most pressing reason for Britain to try to improve ties with the EU. Starmer faces severe problems with the British economy; from a massive debt burden that could lead to swingeing tax increases, to crumbling public infrastructure and a national health service that many regard as unfit for purpose.
Given all this, it makes sense to improve ties with the EU so, for example, British companies can trade more easily with the continent. Since Brexit, UK firms have had to contend with increased costs and more red tape when trading with their EU peers and have limited access to the European market.
A London School of Economics report cited by the British newspaper The Guardian in June found that the TCA had reduced the exports of small British companies to the EU by 30% while around “20,000 small firms have stopped exporting goods to the EU entirely.”
To make matters worse for those companies still engaged in cross-Channel business, UK-EU trade friction will soon increase with the implementation of border checks that London deferred from introducing for ages.
So Starmer will be looking at ways to change this; hence his meetings with Scholz and Macron. But he faces problems. By saying the UK will not re-enter the single market or join the customs union and will not accept a return to the free movement of labor, he has limited room for maneuver when it comes to making changes to the TCA, which will be up for review in 2026.
The border checks and red tape, which hit the bottom lines of small British exporters, will remain in place as long as the single market and custom unions remain off limits.
Starmer could also face internal opposition to his reset plans in the UK. His meeting with Scholz and his flourishing relationship with Macron have already triggered numerous flashing red lights and claxon sirens in the minds of British politicians, such as Nigel Farage, opposed to any attempt to water down the TCA. They fear a Brexit reversal by salami tactics. A concession here, an agreement there; and slice by slice Britain is pulled back into the clutches of the EU.
They have already cited talks on a possible UK-EU youth mobility agreement as Britain’s first step back on the long road to EU membership.
And then there is the EU. The economic incentives for closer ties are bigger in London than they are in Brussels, so the EU, already distracted by more pressing concerns such as war in Ukraine and implementing its unloved Green Deal, may not be so eager to return to the negotiating table. This reluctance could be further solidified by a desire to avoid a repetition of the bruising and at times acrimonious talks that surrounded the original TCA.
Can foreign and defense clout help the British cause?
The UK government may probably hope that foreign policy and defense could lubricate any reset talks.
With a formidable history of diplomacy, a highly developed network of embassies and a seat on the UN Security Council, the UK has, in some ways, a tantalizing carrot. In theory, the EU could profit from the UK’s diplomatic clout in return for economic concessions in reset talks. But at the same time the EU’s vast economic heft and slowly growing diplomatic power are gradually negating the lure of the British carrot and weakening Starmer’s negotiating hand.
Defense is similar. Britain boasts some of the most battle-hardened and highly trained armed forces in the world, while its defense industries produce a formidable array of lethal weapons. Once again, another useful carrot. But, according to the Centre for European Reform, the UK is a “bystander to EU defence industrial cooperation” and may struggle to gain access owing to Brussels’ desire to protect domestic defense industries. This desire may well grow stronger as the EU works on interweaving a defense sector that for decades lacked coordination and cooperation.
So, defense, like foreign policy, may lack the punch Starmer wants when it comes to resetting relations.
Starmer has a difficult task with reset as he looks to drum up support in European capitals. While EU countries will be happy to improve ties with the UK, whether they are prepared to make any significant concessions is another matter altogether.
Since Labour’s victory in the British general election in July, Starmer has made it clear that he wants to improve ties with Europe and seek a better trade deal than that set out in the 2020 Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) negotiated with Brussels by Borish Johnson.
Last week, the prime minister said that he was “absolutely clear” that his government wanted to reset relations although, in almost the same breath, he added: “That does not mean reversing Brexit or re-entering the single market or the customs union.”
The reasons for Starmer’s eagerness to cuddle up to his continental counterparts are complex.
There is the basic need to smooth the feathers left ruffled by years of a Conservative government that sometimes had an antagonistic approach to European relations; in short, everybody needs to get on. Meanwhile the bloody reality of the Ukraine war has also hammered home the need for European solidarity and cooperation.
British economic woes
But the UK’s economic situation is, perhaps, the most pressing reason for Britain to try to improve ties with the EU. Starmer faces severe problems with the British economy; from a massive debt burden that could lead to swingeing tax increases, to crumbling public infrastructure and a national health service that many regard as unfit for purpose.
Given all this, it makes sense to improve ties with the EU so, for example, British companies can trade more easily with the continent. Since Brexit, UK firms have had to contend with increased costs and more red tape when trading with their EU peers and have limited access to the European market.
A London School of Economics report cited by the British newspaper The Guardian in June found that the TCA had reduced the exports of small British companies to the EU by 30% while around “20,000 small firms have stopped exporting goods to the EU entirely.”
To make matters worse for those companies still engaged in cross-Channel business, UK-EU trade friction will soon increase with the implementation of border checks that London deferred from introducing for ages.
So Starmer will be looking at ways to change this; hence his meetings with Scholz and Macron. But he faces problems. By saying the UK will not re-enter the single market or join the customs union and will not accept a return to the free movement of labor, he has limited room for maneuver when it comes to making changes to the TCA, which will be up for review in 2026.
The border checks and red tape, which hit the bottom lines of small British exporters, will remain in place as long as the single market and custom unions remain off limits.
Starmer could also face internal opposition to his reset plans in the UK. His meeting with Scholz and his flourishing relationship with Macron have already triggered numerous flashing red lights and claxon sirens in the minds of British politicians, such as Nigel Farage, opposed to any attempt to water down the TCA. They fear a Brexit reversal by salami tactics. A concession here, an agreement there; and slice by slice Britain is pulled back into the clutches of the EU.
They have already cited talks on a possible UK-EU youth mobility agreement as Britain’s first step back on the long road to EU membership.
And then there is the EU. The economic incentives for closer ties are bigger in London than they are in Brussels, so the EU, already distracted by more pressing concerns such as war in Ukraine and implementing its unloved Green Deal, may not be so eager to return to the negotiating table. This reluctance could be further solidified by a desire to avoid a repetition of the bruising and at times acrimonious talks that surrounded the original TCA.
Can foreign and defense clout help the British cause?
The UK government may probably hope that foreign policy and defense could lubricate any reset talks.
With a formidable history of diplomacy, a highly developed network of embassies and a seat on the UN Security Council, the UK has, in some ways, a tantalizing carrot. In theory, the EU could profit from the UK’s diplomatic clout in return for economic concessions in reset talks. But at the same time the EU’s vast economic heft and slowly growing diplomatic power are gradually negating the lure of the British carrot and weakening Starmer’s negotiating hand.
Defense is similar. Britain boasts some of the most battle-hardened and highly trained armed forces in the world, while its defense industries produce a formidable array of lethal weapons. Once again, another useful carrot. But, according to the Centre for European Reform, the UK is a “bystander to EU defence industrial cooperation” and may struggle to gain access owing to Brussels’ desire to protect domestic defense industries. This desire may well grow stronger as the EU works on interweaving a defense sector that for decades lacked coordination and cooperation.
So, defense, like foreign policy, may lack the punch Starmer wants when it comes to resetting relations.
Starmer has a difficult task with reset as he looks to drum up support in European capitals. While EU countries will be happy to improve ties with the UK, whether they are prepared to make any significant concessions is another matter altogether.
