Voting is underway in France in what many are calling the country’s most important election in modern times — as well as “Europe’s most consequential election in decades”.
With the first exit polls set to be released at 8 p.m., security has been heightened amid fears that the National Rally (RN) could sweep into power and gain outright control of the National Assembly.
Headed by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, RN find themselves in a strong position after scoring well in the first round of voting last week. However, although it remains possible that RN will win the 289 seats required for a majority in the National Assembly, a stalemate seems far more likely after hundreds of centrist and left-wing candidates dropped out of the running this week to give others a better chance of halting RN.
According to one opinion poll conducted by Ipsos, the most probable scenario would see RN winning between 175 and 205 seats. The New Popular Front (NPF), a four-way left-wing alliance hastily formed to combat RN, has been projected to win between 145 and 175 seats, a result that would make it RN’s closest rival.
President Macron, who called the election after his Ensemble party were trounced last month in the European elections, is expected to see his coalition limp in third with just under 150 seats.
Already looking like an epic miscalculation, the decision to hold a snap election will likely lead to a hung parliament, with the final three years of Macron’s presidency set to be weighted heavily by political deadlock with no ruling majority in power.
One possible solution that has been touted could see Macron forming a coalition that would exclude the hard right and hard left, but while this idea has gathered traction over the last few days, Greens leader Marine Tondelier has firmly stated that “there will be no Macronist prime minister”.
Also on the table is the prospect of a technocratic government, loosely run along the same lines as Italy during the eurozone debt crisis.
Although many see RN’s outright victory being successfully thwarted, a political quagmire potentially awaits the world’s seventh biggest economy.
Headed by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, RN find themselves in a strong position after scoring well in the first round of voting last week. However, although it remains possible that RN will win the 289 seats required for a majority in the National Assembly, a stalemate seems far more likely after hundreds of centrist and left-wing candidates dropped out of the running this week to give others a better chance of halting RN.
According to one opinion poll conducted by Ipsos, the most probable scenario would see RN winning between 175 and 205 seats. The New Popular Front (NPF), a four-way left-wing alliance hastily formed to combat RN, has been projected to win between 145 and 175 seats, a result that would make it RN’s closest rival.
President Macron, who called the election after his Ensemble party were trounced last month in the European elections, is expected to see his coalition limp in third with just under 150 seats.
Already looking like an epic miscalculation, the decision to hold a snap election will likely lead to a hung parliament, with the final three years of Macron’s presidency set to be weighted heavily by political deadlock with no ruling majority in power.
One possible solution that has been touted could see Macron forming a coalition that would exclude the hard right and hard left, but while this idea has gathered traction over the last few days, Greens leader Marine Tondelier has firmly stated that “there will be no Macronist prime minister”.
Also on the table is the prospect of a technocratic government, loosely run along the same lines as Italy during the eurozone debt crisis.
Although many see RN’s outright victory being successfully thwarted, a political quagmire potentially awaits the world’s seventh biggest economy.
Source: Politico / BBC
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