Political analysts have expressed their hopes and fears as to what the future may hold as Viktor Orbán’s Hungary assumes the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union.
János Bóka, Hungary’s EU Affairs minister, has promised that the country will be “an honest broker” during its presidential term; however, several analysts and politicians have begged to differ.
Described by some as “a constant thorn in the EU’s side,” Hungary has made a habit of vetoing EU decisions, becoming a notoriously difficult European partner in the process. In particular, many European leaders have been left frustrated by Orbán’s stance on Ukraine.
Speaking anonymously to The Guardian, one senior EU diplomat said: “I take pills to calm myself when I talk about this issue because it’s getting ridiculous… At every turn of the road, you see Hungarians hampering Ukraine’s ability to fight an aggressor.”
On the domestic front, Orbán’s government has also set alarm bells ringing with its, according to critics, flagrant disregard for press freedoms, the rule of law, and its general erosion of democratic values.
Having previously promised to “shake up the power structures [in Brussels],” Viktor Orbán will now head the EU Council presidency, which has been met with widespread trepidation.
Announcing yesterday that he had joined forces with Austria’s FPÖ and the Czech ANO Movement to create a new hard-right alliance in the European Parliament, Orbán fired a bullish broadside at the EU: “What Europeans want is three things: peace, order, and development,” he said. “But what they are getting from the elite in Brussels today is war, migration, and stagnation.”
With Hungary recently fined €200 million by the European Court of Justice for failing to comply with asylum and migration laws, many openly doubt that Budapest will be able to act as an impartial mediator in European affairs.
Moreover, Hungary’s presidency comes at a time when Orbán and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are locked in an ill-tempered dispute over financial aid. As things stand, the EU has refused to pay much of the €30 billion owed to Budapest as part of the bloc’s COVID-19 recovery fund and Cohesion Fund, with Brussels citing concerns about corruption. For the first time ever, the EU Council will be led by a country facing penalties for rule of law transgressions.
With many theorizing that Hungary will use the coming months to exert influence and tilt decisions in its direction, it came as no surprise that, ahead of the switch in presidency, Brussels hurried through a new package of sanctions against Russia, a fresh round of military aid for Kyiv, and opened accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.
It is telling, though, that of the 35 negotiations that Ukraine has scheduled relating to its EU accession, none will take place with Budapest at the helm.
However, while Ukraine’s bid will be put on ice for the duration of Budapest’s tenure, Balkan states such as Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania can expect progress to be made with regards to their own EU accession.
In an interview with Hungary’s Kossuth Radio, Bóka also promised to streamline several of the EU’s existing regulations. “We aim to simplify EU legislation, reduce administrative burdens on European enterprises, and fully realize the internal market's potential,” he said.
Expanding on Hungary’s goals, Bóka added that Budapest would seek to strengthen infrastructure and energy links across the continent and promote industrial politics that align with European goals. Green transition, Bóka said, should be carried out in collaboration with European industries rather than in opposition to them.
He also emphasized that Hungary’s presidency would also see security bolstered in light of the ongoing migration crisis.
Additionally, the minister said that Hungary’s agenda would reflect the will of Europe’s voters. “The [recent European] elections sent a clear political message: Europe needs change.”
Although many foresee fireworks and theatrics between Orbán and von der Leyen, many analysts agree that Budapest’s time in the presidential hotseat is unlikely to derail the EU. “The Hungarian presidency only lasts for half a year, so I don’t think that big damage can be done, even if these conflicts escalate between Hungary and the EU institutions,” said Péter Krekó, director of Budapest’s Political Capital Institute.
Speaking to The Guardian, one unnamed EU source said that handing Budapest the presidency could potentially be “a good way of reining them in.” Referencing Orbán’s European negotiating tactics, the diplomat added that so far Budapest’s headstrong obstinacy has yet to actually truly steer the EU off-course. “They block [decisions] for a certain time, but in the end they give in. They haven’t really destroyed anything yet.”
Others have pointed to the timing of Budapest’s presidency, coming as it does during a period of change. Thu Nguyen of the Jacques Delors Center think tank said: “It comes when EU institutions will be busy distributing posts and, above all, appointing the new European Commission. As a result, little legislative work will be carried out during this period, for which a Council presidency is particularly important.”
However, Kim Lane Scheppele, a professor of law and politics at Princeton University, highlighted Orbán’s form for exploiting such breaks to maximum personal effect. “Orbán has previously used two pauses in EU vigilance to consolidate autocracy,” she told The Guardian. “He used his rotating presidency in 2011 to bring into effect his new autocratic constitution and many accompanying laws specifying the details about the new constitutional system."
While these fears are valid, the general mood suggests that Europe is well-placed to roll with the punches and emerge unscathed. Speaking to DW, one anonymous diplomat said: “We will survive Hungary - and then work can begin in earnest in the first half of 2025 when Poland takes over the rotating presidency and the new European Commission is in place.”
Described by some as “a constant thorn in the EU’s side,” Hungary has made a habit of vetoing EU decisions, becoming a notoriously difficult European partner in the process. In particular, many European leaders have been left frustrated by Orbán’s stance on Ukraine.
Speaking anonymously to The Guardian, one senior EU diplomat said: “I take pills to calm myself when I talk about this issue because it’s getting ridiculous… At every turn of the road, you see Hungarians hampering Ukraine’s ability to fight an aggressor.”
On the domestic front, Orbán’s government has also set alarm bells ringing with its, according to critics, flagrant disregard for press freedoms, the rule of law, and its general erosion of democratic values.
Having previously promised to “shake up the power structures [in Brussels],” Viktor Orbán will now head the EU Council presidency, which has been met with widespread trepidation.
Announcing yesterday that he had joined forces with Austria’s FPÖ and the Czech ANO Movement to create a new hard-right alliance in the European Parliament, Orbán fired a bullish broadside at the EU: “What Europeans want is three things: peace, order, and development,” he said. “But what they are getting from the elite in Brussels today is war, migration, and stagnation.”
With Hungary recently fined €200 million by the European Court of Justice for failing to comply with asylum and migration laws, many openly doubt that Budapest will be able to act as an impartial mediator in European affairs.
Moreover, Hungary’s presidency comes at a time when Orbán and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are locked in an ill-tempered dispute over financial aid. As things stand, the EU has refused to pay much of the €30 billion owed to Budapest as part of the bloc’s COVID-19 recovery fund and Cohesion Fund, with Brussels citing concerns about corruption. For the first time ever, the EU Council will be led by a country facing penalties for rule of law transgressions.
With many theorizing that Hungary will use the coming months to exert influence and tilt decisions in its direction, it came as no surprise that, ahead of the switch in presidency, Brussels hurried through a new package of sanctions against Russia, a fresh round of military aid for Kyiv, and opened accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.
It is telling, though, that of the 35 negotiations that Ukraine has scheduled relating to its EU accession, none will take place with Budapest at the helm.
However, while Ukraine’s bid will be put on ice for the duration of Budapest’s tenure, Balkan states such as Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania can expect progress to be made with regards to their own EU accession.
In an interview with Hungary’s Kossuth Radio, Bóka also promised to streamline several of the EU’s existing regulations. “We aim to simplify EU legislation, reduce administrative burdens on European enterprises, and fully realize the internal market's potential,” he said.
Expanding on Hungary’s goals, Bóka added that Budapest would seek to strengthen infrastructure and energy links across the continent and promote industrial politics that align with European goals. Green transition, Bóka said, should be carried out in collaboration with European industries rather than in opposition to them.
He also emphasized that Hungary’s presidency would also see security bolstered in light of the ongoing migration crisis.
Additionally, the minister said that Hungary’s agenda would reflect the will of Europe’s voters. “The [recent European] elections sent a clear political message: Europe needs change.”
Although many foresee fireworks and theatrics between Orbán and von der Leyen, many analysts agree that Budapest’s time in the presidential hotseat is unlikely to derail the EU. “The Hungarian presidency only lasts for half a year, so I don’t think that big damage can be done, even if these conflicts escalate between Hungary and the EU institutions,” said Péter Krekó, director of Budapest’s Political Capital Institute.
Speaking to The Guardian, one unnamed EU source said that handing Budapest the presidency could potentially be “a good way of reining them in.” Referencing Orbán’s European negotiating tactics, the diplomat added that so far Budapest’s headstrong obstinacy has yet to actually truly steer the EU off-course. “They block [decisions] for a certain time, but in the end they give in. They haven’t really destroyed anything yet.”
Others have pointed to the timing of Budapest’s presidency, coming as it does during a period of change. Thu Nguyen of the Jacques Delors Center think tank said: “It comes when EU institutions will be busy distributing posts and, above all, appointing the new European Commission. As a result, little legislative work will be carried out during this period, for which a Council presidency is particularly important.”
However, Kim Lane Scheppele, a professor of law and politics at Princeton University, highlighted Orbán’s form for exploiting such breaks to maximum personal effect. “Orbán has previously used two pauses in EU vigilance to consolidate autocracy,” she told The Guardian. “He used his rotating presidency in 2011 to bring into effect his new autocratic constitution and many accompanying laws specifying the details about the new constitutional system."
While these fears are valid, the general mood suggests that Europe is well-placed to roll with the punches and emerge unscathed. Speaking to DW, one anonymous diplomat said: “We will survive Hungary - and then work can begin in earnest in the first half of 2025 when Poland takes over the rotating presidency and the new European Commission is in place.”
Source: The Guardian / Politico / DW / About Hungary
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