The Russians may intensify their attacks on Ukraine, taking advantage of the time needed for the implementation on the part of the United States of the aid approved on Saturday by the U.S. House of Representatives, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated on Sunday in its latest analysis.
The U.S. House of Representatives approved a nearly $61 billion aid to Ukraine on Saturday, but before it could be actualized, it must be approved by the Senate and signed by U.S. President Joe Biden .This procedure, according to ISW, as well as the logistics of delivering U.S. aid to the front lines in Ukraine, will likely mean that the aid provided will not begin to affect the situation on the front lines for several weeks.
“The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time, particularly if Russian forces increase their attacks to take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new U.S. aid,” the U.S.- based think tank added.
“Russian forces will likely intensify ongoing offensive operations and missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks in order to exploit the closing window of Ukrainian material constraints,” it added.
The military analysts at the think tank also estimate that Ukrainian forces may incur additional setbacks in the coming weeks as Kyiv awaits the arrival of the aid, however, it “will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed U.S. assistance arrives promptly.”
In addition, ISW writes, Russian forces are continuing, and in some areas have intensified, offensive operations, likely taking advantage of unusually dry spring conditions and the continuing shortage of Ukrainian equipment.
However, ISW estimates that Ukraine will likely be in a much better operational position by June of this year, and the Russian military command is likely to consider making significant changes to the large-scale offensive operation planned for June.
It said that the resumption of U.S. security assistance to Ukraine is a vital turning point in the war, but the final outcome of the conflict will depend on the additional decisions taken by the Kremlin, the West, and Ukraine.
“The frontline situation will therefore likely continue to deteriorate in that time, particularly if Russian forces increase their attacks to take advantage of the limited window before the arrival of new U.S. aid,” the U.S.- based think tank added.
“Russian forces will likely intensify ongoing offensive operations and missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks in order to exploit the closing window of Ukrainian material constraints,” it added.
The military analysts at the think tank also estimate that Ukrainian forces may incur additional setbacks in the coming weeks as Kyiv awaits the arrival of the aid, however, it “will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive assuming the resumed U.S. assistance arrives promptly.”
Kyiv to be better poised by JuneNEW: The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine. The bill must now be passed by the Senate and signed by the president before aid can begin to flow. 🧵(1/5) pic.twitter.com/KgMfEQ0Mov
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 21, 2024
In addition, ISW writes, Russian forces are continuing, and in some areas have intensified, offensive operations, likely taking advantage of unusually dry spring conditions and the continuing shortage of Ukrainian equipment.
However, ISW estimates that Ukraine will likely be in a much better operational position by June of this year, and the Russian military command is likely to consider making significant changes to the large-scale offensive operation planned for June.
It said that the resumption of U.S. security assistance to Ukraine is a vital turning point in the war, but the final outcome of the conflict will depend on the additional decisions taken by the Kremlin, the West, and Ukraine.
Source: ISW, PAP, TVP World
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