People in Poland marking Independence Day on Nov 11 may need winter coats instead of autumn jackets, if one US weather model is right Winter could arrive in Poland abruptly in the first half of November, bringing heavy snow and temperatures as low as -14°C, according to simulations from a US weather model. Other forecasts point to much milder conditions. Runs of the US Global Forecast System (GFS) on Tuesday showed Arctic air flowing in from the northeast around Nov. 10–11. On Nov. 11, Poland’s Independence Day, temperatures could fall to -8°C in the southeast and to -14°C in mountain foothills. Snow could begin on Nov. 7 or 8 and would be heaviest in the south. By Nov. 12, the model shows more than 20 cm of snow in places including Krakow and Sanok, and around 50 cm in the Tatra Mountains. Elsewhere in the affected southern and eastern regions, snow cover would generally reach no more than 5–7 cm outside the mountains. Driving conditions in mountain areas could become difficult. Forecasts differ The European model, run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), shows no comparable cold snap. Instead, it forecasts heavy rain across much of Poland on Nov. 9. Poland’s state weather service, IMGW, expects November as a whole to be warmer than average, with precipitation totals within the normal range across most of the country but above normal in parts of the west and northwest. Its spokeswoman, Agnieszka Prasek, said short bursts of very cold air, night frosts and the first sleet or snow were still possible. Forecasts this far ahead often change, and the scenario may look different in later model runs. Poland has seen severe winter conditions recently. Last January was snowy and very cold, with the national average temperature 3°C below the 1991–2020 average.
