Arab parties could hold decisive seats, but coalition red lines may leave the country facing prolonged uncertainty In Israel, the magic number on the lips of politicians and political analysts is 61. That's the number of seats needed for a majority in the 120-member parliament. But neither the right-wing prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, nor his main challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, appears certain to reach that figure in Tuesday’s general election. Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director at the Counter Extremism Project, a US-based non-profit organization, told TVP World’s World View from Brussels program that coalition arithmetic could frustrate the opposition. Ian Lesser, a Middle East expert at the German Marshall Fund, also warned against relying too heavily on opinion polls. A victory without power? Arab parties could win around 14 seats in the election, but Eisenkot has ruled out including them in his coalition. Lesser warned that the result could trigger “a very protracted political negotiation.” The election is also a referendum on Netanyahu’s handling of the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks, subsequent wars and controversial judicial reforms. Both Lesser and Schindler suggested an Eisenkot government could ease domestic polarization and improve Israel’s international standing without fundamentally changing its security policy toward Iran.
