NATO's top military commander in Europe, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, has unveiled his “Theory of Victory” aimed at “blocking, blunting and breaking” any attack on the alliance, while stressing that war is “neither imminent nor inevitable.” Grynkewich outlined the approach at the Warsaw Security Forum in the Polish capital on Monday, describing how the alliance would prevent an adversary from seizing and holding its territory. He said his “Theory of Victory” was based on a concept known as a “denial defense,” aimed at preventing an adversary from seizing and holding NATO territory. “My theory of victory is simple: we will block the initial attack. If the attack persists, we will blunt it and prevent enemy advance. And if required, we will break the enemy's forces and the operational warfighting system that is arrayed against us,” he said. Despite outlining how NATO would respond to an attack, Grynkewich stressed that he did not expect an attack. “I do not assess that conflict is imminent or inevitable. It isn't,” he said. He said NATO was a defensive alliance with no ambitions beyond protecting its people and territory, but warned that any attack on a member state would be met with a decisive response. “If someone is foolish enough to attack us, we will fight,” Grynkewich said. "We're rehearsed, and we're ready, and we'll be more ready today, more ready tomorrow, and every day after that," he continued. "We stand here together in Poland today, stronger than ever, united in our common vision of a more balanced, more ready, and more lethal alliance. "We know how we will fight if a fight comes to us, and we know we will win." How NATO would defeat an attack Under the approach, NATO's ground forces would seek to halt an invading army at the point of contact, preventing it from capturing alliance territory. Air and naval forces, supported by space and cyber capabilities, would simultaneously seek to establish superiority over the battlefield and disrupt enemy operations. If the offensive continued, NATO would deploy advanced sensors, autonomous systems and coordinated military capabilities to prevent the attacking forces from gaining momentum. The final stage would involve targeting not only enemy troops but also the command structures, supply networks and other systems sustaining their operations. Grynkewich said NATO would combine advanced precision weapons with large numbers of cheaper, scalable systems to overwhelm an adversary and render its forces incapable of continuing the attack. “The approach also draws on lessons from modern warfare in Ukraine and the Middle East," he added. Preventing a wider war Grynkewich said NATO would seek to stop an attack rather than pursue a broader strategic defeat of its adversary, arguing that limiting the alliance's objectives could help prevent a wider conflict. “In executing what I've outlined above, we are not seeking to impose a strategic defeat on our adversary, nor do we need to do so,” he said. “Rather, we are only seeking to stop any attack in its tracks, to deny the ability to seize and hold our territory.” He argued that by focusing solely on defeating the forces attacking NATO, the alliance would place responsibility for any further escalation squarely on the aggressor. ‘Ready to fight tonight’ Grynkewich said NATO was already taking steps to put the approach into practice through military exercises, improved readiness and investments in new capabilities. “If attacked, we are ready to fight tonight, but we are not complacent,” he said. Under the strategy, NATO's forward-deployed ground forces on its eastern flank would rehearse stopping an initial assault, while air and maritime forces would demonstrate their ability to disrupt enemy operations. The alliance would also invest in long-range precision weapons, sensor networks and a shared digital infrastructure to improve coordination across its forces. Grynkewich said NATO's intelligence capabilities and advanced data analysis would help detect a potential attack early, giving commanders time to assess the threat and rapidly position their forces. “This means the alliance is unlikely to be caught by surprise,” he said. The unveiling comes as NATO seeks to strengthen its defenses against Russia, whose full-scale invasion of Ukraine has plunged Europe into its gravest security crisis since the Cold War. The alliance has also faced growing concern over suspected Russian sabotage, drone incursions and other acts of hybrid warfare targeting European countries. ‘Poland has led by example’ Poland is a significant setting for the announcement. The NATO member borders Ukraine and Belarus and shares a roughly 210-kilometer land frontier with Russia's heavily militarized Kaliningrad exclave. Grynkewich praised Poland's military modernization, defense spending and efforts to expand its domestic arms industry, describing the country as an example of NATO's commitment to collective defense. “Since joining NATO in 1999, Poland has led by example,” he said.
