Beyond cars, rare earths may be the real prize for Europe. China’s agreement in principle to curb hybrid car exports to Europe is “not exactly a breakthrough yet,” despite progress in Beijing trade talks, an analyst warned Friday. Marcin Zaborowski, TVP World’s Europe editor, told the broadcaster’s News in Depth program that the agreement was a “significant first step” toward rebalancing trade, but offered few guarantees that Beijing would deliver. No binding quota announced Following talks in China, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič announced a shared understanding that could cut Chinese exports of hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars to the EU by more than half. The talks also addressed access for European exporters to China’s market and easier licensing for rare earth shipments. Zaborowski said that the vehicle pledge was not a binding quota. The distinction matters as Chinese automakers expand in Europe, where imports of Chinese-made battery-electric cars already face additional EU duties imposed following an investigation that found unfair subsidies threatened economic injury to EU producers. The stakes go well beyond the auto industry. According to Eurostat, the EU imported €559.4 billion in goods from China in 2025 while exporting just €199.6 billion, leaving a deficit of nearly €360 billion. Rare earths may matter more Zaborowski argued that improved access to Chinese rare earths could prove more consequential than limits on car imports. The materials are vital for manufacturing advanced electronics, electric vehicles and defense equipment, and China dominates their processing. Europe has been trying to reduce that dependence. A major rare earth deposit in Norway has raised hopes for alternative supplies, but new mining and processing capacity takes time to develop. Zaborowski said French and German pressure for tougher trade measures had strengthened Brussels’ hand in Beijing. EU leaders are expected to review the outcome at their October 15–16 summit, where the durability of China’s promises will face scrutiny. He expects a cautious reception: “well done, but that's not enough.”
