A Russian strike on a weapons factory in a European NATO country would trigger the alliance’s mutual defense clause, EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius told TVP World on Thursday. His comments came a day after Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that European factories producing weapons for Ukraine were “potential military targets for Russia.” Her words raised concerns about the prospect of a direct confrontation between Moscow and NATO. Speaking to TVP World on the sidelines of a meeting of the European Parliament’s Security and Defence Committee in Brussels, Kubilius said: “I would say if Russia will hit our factories in European territory, that would be Article 5.” Article 5 treats an armed attack against one NATO member as an attack against all, requiring allies to come to the assistance of the country targeted. Putin issues nuclear warning over Kaliningrad Tensions along NATO’s eastern flank have risen amid suspected Russian-linked sabotage and cyberattacks across Europe, as well as a series of Russian missile and drone strikes close to the alliance’s borders. The incidents have fueled fears that the war in Ukraine could spill over into NATO territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin added to those concerns on Thursday by warning that Moscow could resort to its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, if Kaliningrad, Russia’s heavily militarized exclave bordering NATO members Poland and Lithuania, came under direct attack. “This is inevitable,” Putin said. No Western official has indicated there are any plans to attack Kaliningrad. ‘Familiar intimidation tactic’ Philippe Dickinson, deputy director of the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the US-based Atlantic Council think tank, told TVP World that Putin’s remarks were consistent with Moscow’s previous use of nuclear threats. “It’s a very familiar intimidation tactic. It is not at all outside of the usual Vladimir Putin playbook,” Dickinson said. He said NATO should remain “calm,” “united” and “focused” rather than allow Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric to alter the alliance’s course. Dickinson also backed drawing clear red lines over any attacks on NATO territory. He said, however, that any decision to invoke Article 5 rested with NATO members, rather than the European Union. “I’m glad that Commissioner Kubilius has done so, but... we need to note that he’s an EU commissioner. This is a NATO decision,” Dickinson said. “These are different bodies, and it’s for NATO member states to make that determination.” He added that despite Russia’s escalating rhetoric and actions, he did not believe Moscow wanted a direct Article 5 confrontation with NATO. Russia ‘not capable’ of NATO invasion Lieutenant General Piotr Błazeusz, Poland’s military representative to the NATO and EU military committees, said on Thursday that Russia currently lacked the military capacity to invade a NATO country. “Russia, for the moment thanks to the Ukrainian side, is not able to start any invasion on [a] NATO country. They are just not capable,” Błazeusz said. He warned, however, that Moscow could continue to challenge NATO through hybrid operations designed to remain “below the threshold of war.”
