The attacks could involve drones launched from merchant ships in the Mediterranean, according to a Spanish newspaper. The CIA has warned European governments that Russia could launch drone attacks on Spain, France or Italy, according to a report, amid growing concern that Moscow could target countries supporting Ukraine. The drones could be concealed aboard merchant ships and launched from the Mediterranean, Spanish newspaper El Mundo reported, citing people familiar with the warning. It said the three countries’ governments had been informed of a possible attack. “They will use drones launched from the sea, concealed in a shipping container aboard a vessel; it is not difficult at all,” a source close to Lithuania’s defense ministry told the newspaper on condition of anonymity. El Mundo reported, citing Lithuanian authorities, that the possible operation could use Gerbera drones launched by catapult from a ship. The newspaper estimated that, from 200 to 300 kilometers offshore, they could reach a target in roughly one to two hours. Their small explosive payload could start a fire, damage equipment or temporarily close a port or airport. According to El Mundo, European governments received the warning shortly after CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow in August, during which he reportedly warned Russia against attacking or provoking NATO. The warning marks a shift in focus. Concern about Russian aggression against NATO has largely centered on the alliance’s eastern flank, where countries border Russia, Moscow-aligned Belarus and war-torn Ukraine. Poland and Romania, both key eastern-flank states, have faced drone incursions during Russian strikes on Ukraine. Targeting ‘Europe’s weakest point’ Keir Giles, a British analyst specializing in Russian military strategy, told the newspaper that distance from Russia offered little protection. He pointed to gaps in Spain’s air and missile defenses that he said could leave it vulnerable to attack. “It is not necessarily the frontline countries that will be targeted. The target will be wherever Europe’s weakest point is,” he said. “Russia looks at where any action will have the greatest impact because of a lack of resilience, a lack of civil defense and political fragility,” he added. El Mundo suggested politics could also play a role, saying that Spain, France and Italy face elections in 2027 and have political forces that could exploit public fear and fatigue over support for Ukraine after an attack. Europe on alert European officials have issued increasingly stark warnings about possible Russian attacks as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said late last week intelligence agencies had “convincing” evidence that Russia could launch “hybrid drone and missile strikes” on NATO territory while portraying them as accidental. Poland is no stranger to such incursions. Nearly 20 Russian drones entered its airspace during a large-scale attack on Ukraine in September 2025. Polish and allied aircraft shot down several of them, marking the first time NATO forces had opened fire on Russian targets since the start of the full-scale war. The Polish Armed Forces’ Operational Command said on Wednesday that a Russian military Mi-8 helicopter briefly entered Polish airspace from the Kaliningrad exclave. The incursion lasted 42 seconds. On Thursday, Denmark’s defense minister and military intelligence chief warned that the country should expect serious hybrid attacks and other incidents from Russia. A new intelligence assessment rated the threat of sabotage against Danish armed forces and military provocations against NATO countries as high. “The situation is now the most serious it has been since the end of the Cold War,” Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus said.
