Analyst Paul Goble said that the future of Russia’s 102nd Military Base in the country has become central to Moscow’s strategy. Russia is “setting the stage” to annex Georgia’s breakaway region of South Ossetia, with Moscow’s calculations increasingly tied to uncertainty over the future of its military base in Armenia, a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank has told TVP World. Paul Goble, a former CIA analyst and longtime specialist on Russia and the former Soviet Union, was speaking to TVP World’s Eastern Express after Moscow-backed authorities held a presidential election in South Ossetia. The EU declared the September 18 vote “null and void” and said Russia’s moves to integrate the territory represented steps toward possible illegal annexation. Armenia changes the calculation “I think what's going on in South Ossetia undoubtedly presages a move to annexation,” Goble said. He argued that the future of Russia’s 102nd Military Base in Gyumri has become central to Moscow’s strategy. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said last week that Armenia no longer needs the Russian base, although Yerevan has not formally asked Moscow to withdraw it. The shift comes as Armenia reassesses its long-standing dependence on Russian security guarantees. Goble said Moscow had previously preferred to control South Ossetia without formally absorbing it, partly because annexation could complicate any future rapprochement with Georgia. But uncertainty surrounding the Gyumri base, he argued, has increased South Ossetia’s military value to Russia. Testing Western resolve Goble described Moscow’s use of Russian passports and elections across disputed or occupied territories as part of a broader effort to test how far the international community will tolerate changes to recognized borders. “What he's doing there is a testing of the waters to see just how far he can go,” he said. Russia recognized South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent after its 2008 war with Georgia, while most of the international community continues to regard both as Georgian territory.
