Moscow was likely to intensify covert attacks against countries supporting Ukraine, analyst Roland Freudenstein told TVP World. “Putin sees no reason to limit his campaign of hybrid warfare against the West,” a leading security analyst has warned, arguing that Europe’s response to suspected Russian sabotage has so far failed to create sufficient deterrence. Roland Freudenstein, co-founder of the Brussels Freedom Hub, a Brussels-based foreign policy think tank, told TVP World’s World News Tonight that Moscow was likely to intensify covert attacks against countries supporting Ukraine, targeting weapons production, supply lines and political cohesion. Europe’s deterrence gap His comments came after another fire at a weapons storage site operated by Bulgarian arms firm EMCO. Bulgarian authorities said sabotage had not been ruled out, while the company itself described the incident as deliberate. Prosecutors have previously linked attacks on EMCO facilities to Russian operatives, allegations Moscow has rejected. Freudenstein said such operations were designed not only to damage military infrastructure but also to “test the reactions of the West politically, diplomatically, technologically” and deepen divisions within NATO and the EU. A TVP World analysis has examined how Russia’s deniable attacks are testing NATO’s threshold without triggering a conventional military response. He argued that Western governments should go further by targeting Russia’s shadow fleet, tightening sanctions, carrying out counter-cyber operations and expanding cooperation with Ukraine on long-range strikes against Russian military production sites. BRICS offers Putin little pressure Turning to the BRICS summit in New Delhi, Freudenstein dismissed suggestions that India or other members were exerting meaningful pressure on Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. He said BRICS countries continued economic ties with Russia and, in his view, helped Moscow circumvent Western sanctions. The summit has highlighted divisions inside the expanded bloc, including tensions involving Iran and Gulf states and the long-running strategic rivalry between India and China. But Freudenstein argued that opposition to what Moscow calls the “collective West” remains a key common denominator.
