Renewed fighting has again put shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—and global energy markets—at risk. The US-Israel war with Iran risks becoming a prolonged regional conflict as diplomacy fails to narrow the gap between the two sides, foreign-policy expert Galip Dalay told TVP World. Dalay, a senior research fellow at Chatham House and co-director of Oxford University’s Global Orders Programme, spoke to TVP World’s World Talks program during Impact Leading Minds in Warsaw. Six months after US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, he said Washington and Tehran remained far apart in their strategic objectives. Renewed attacks this week have again raised fears of wider escalation. Diplomacy as part of the war Dalay argued that the conflict was moving through repeated cycles of escalation, de-escalation and negotiation, without producing a durable political breakthrough. In his view, Washington has made tactical gains but has yet to achieve its broader aims regarding Iran’s nuclear program, missile capabilities and regional influence. He also warned that conflicting signals from President Donald Trump and senior US officials increased the risk of miscalculation. “The more it becomes regionalized, the more it also will be long-lasting,” he said. Pressure on Iran’s neighbors has intensified as Tehran and Iran-aligned groups strike US-linked and regional energy infrastructure. Dalay said a sustainable easing of tensions was unlikely without broader de-escalation involving the US and Israel. Europe and the Hormuz shock The conflict has had global consequences because of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas had moved before the war. Some flows had partially recovered, but renewed fighting has again threatened shipping and pushed Brent crude higher this week. Dalay said Europe should play a larger diplomatic role and rethink trade and energy corridors that reduce dependence on vulnerable maritime chokepoints. He also argued that Europe’s eastern and southern neighborhoods should be treated as one strategic space, linking security in Ukraine, the Black Sea and the Middle East. “Europe cannot transform and change its neighborhood unless it becomes a geopolitical actor in its neighborhood,” he said.
Dalay says Washington and Tehran remain far apart in their strategic objectives. (Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images)
