The European Union’s push to bring Ukraine and Moldova closer to membership of the bloc has entered what one analyst called “the first kilometer” of a much longer political marathon. EU ambassadors have agreed to open the first negotiating cluster with Ukraine and Moldova, covering fundamentals such as the rule of law, democratic standards, judicial independence and anti-corruption policy. Heather Grabbe, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based economic think tank, and Rikard Jozwiak, Europe editor at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, told TVP World’s Wider View program that the move marks an important signal, but not a shortcut to accession. Both Ukraine and Moldova were granted candidate status in June 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while formal accession negotiations were opened in June 2024. Grabbe said Ukraine was “already a more than equal member of Europe in terms of security,” pointing to its battle-hardened military and role in resisting Russia. But she warned that full accession would require Kyiv to implement and enforce thousands of EU laws. The veto question France and Germany have floated ideas for deeper political or “associate” integration before full membership. Grabbe said such a model could give Ukraine a “seat at the table” without voting rights or a veto, while allowing earlier participation in EU programs. Jozwiak was more skeptical, warning that any interim model could become “a more comfortable waiting room” rather than a path to membership. The question of veto power looms over the process. Grabbe argued that many points in accession talks that are subject to a possible veto are not fixed in EU treaties and could be changed. Jozwiak countered that member states are unlikely to give up tools that allow them to press bilateral interests. Asked whether Ukraine would eventually join the bloc, Grabbe said EU enlargement had become “geopolitically much more important” since 2022. Jozwiak remained cautious: “The waiting room will be pretty full with restless candidate countries for quite some time.”
