The assessment cites the Ukrainian partisan group Atesh, which said Russian units had suffered heavy losses and were withdrawing from northern and western sections of the spit after Ukrainian strikes disrupted supply routes. Ukraine’s southern military command has not confirmed the reports. A spokesperson said current intelligence indicated Russian rotations and redeployments in the area, while Ukrainian forces were continuing efforts to bring Russian logistics routes under fire control. The Kinburn Spit is one of Russia’s remaining footholds in the Mykolaiv region and has been used to threaten Ukrainian positions near the Black Sea coast and the Dnipro-Bug estuary. If a wider Russian withdrawal is confirmed, it could improve Ukraine’s position around the estuary and increase pressure on Russian logistics routes across occupied southern Ukraine, including routes leading toward Crimea.