Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary election has become a test of how far Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan can move his country toward the West without triggering a deeper confrontation with historical ally Moscow. Marcin Zaborowski, TVP World’s Europe Editor, told the News in Depth program that Russia’s failure to act during Armenia’s confrontations with Azerbaijan had badly damaged trust in Moscow’s security guarantees. Now Yerevan appears to be pulling closer to the West and the EU, whose leaders flocked to the country for a historic summit and conference last month. “Russia did not protect them at the hour of need,” Zaborowski said, referring to the 2023 Azerbaijani takeover of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Russia has in recent days recalled its ambassador to Yerevan for consultations and warned Armenia against deepening ties with the European Union. President Vladimir Putin has also suggested that Yerevan may have to choose between EU ambitions and its place in the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. A fragile pivot Armenia remains heavily dependent on Russia for energy, trade and security. Russian troops are still stationed in the country, while Moscow retains strong economic leverage over gas, oil and agricultural exports. But Zaborowski said the relationship shifted after the latest confrontations with Azerbaijan. Russian peacekeepers did not prevent Baku from regaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh, despite Armenia’s long-standing reliance on Moscow as a protector. “All these four or five thousand Russian troops, which are there in Armenia, did nothing,” Zaborowski said, adding that this “completely undercut the support for Russia and the trust in Russian security guarantees.” That, he said, explains Pashinyan’s attempt to “diversify” Armenia’s options by expanding cooperation with the EU and the US, rather than breaking with Russia outright. Pressure from Moscow Zaborowski cautioned that Armenia is not choosing between Russia and the West in simple terms. In Gyumri, where Russian troops are based, residents interviewed by TVP World said Russian consumers remain vital to local businesses. Still, he said national opinion polls show Pashinyan’s party ahead, suggesting many Armenians want closer Western ties despite Moscow’s warnings. “Armenia is a democracy, and as such, we cannot be certain who's going to win,” Zaborowski said.
Now Yerevan appears to be pulling closer to the West and the EU. Photo by EPC Armenia/Anadolu via Getty Images; Contributor/Getty Images
