Donald Trump’s disruption of the global order may not be the strategic gift to Vladimir Putin that many assume, with Moscow struggling to adapt to a world it helped destabilize. Hanna Notte, Eurasia Program Director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told TVP World’s “On The Record” program that the Kremlin may welcome reduced US support for Ukraine and tensions within NATO, but the wider picture is more complicated. A world Russia helped break Russia has spent years working to weaken international institutions and the Western‑led rules‑based order, Notte noted, yet it still relied on bodies such as the UN Security Council to project great‑power status. Trump‑era moves to sideline and bypass parts of the UN‑centered system have therefore caused unease in Moscow, she argued. “This is almost a moment for Russia of a sort of ‘be careful what you wished for,’” Notte said. She pointed to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s complaint that Washington was taking the world back to a time with “no international law, no Versailles system, no Yalta system” and towards a world where “might is right.” In new Trump‑led formats, she suggested, Putin risks being treated not as a US equal but as one participant among many. Ukraine remains the test Notte echoed Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski – who has said that recent shifts in US troop plans have “confused” Putin – in arguing that Moscow sees Trump as unpredictable and difficult to read. She said Russia could still try to test NATO’s resolve, including in the Baltic region or Poland, but warned that such a move would be a major gamble because Moscow still appears to take NATO seriously as a military alliance. For now, she argued, Putin’s priority remains Ukraine. Russia is trying to regain Washington’s attention and push the US to pressure Kyiv, but Notte said she was not convinced Putin was ready to negotiate in good faith. “I’m not holding my breath,” she said. “But of course, I think Europe should be prepared to play some kind of role.”
