Next year “will be an extremely dangerous moment,” the former head of Poland’s National Security Bureau has warned, saying that Russia may seek to test NATO before Europe completes its military build-up. Jacek Siewiera, who is also founder of defense firm Hybrid Global Strategy, told TVP World’s World Talks program at the Defence24 Days conference in Warsaw that his earlier warning of a possible confrontation with Russia within three years still stands. Siewiera said Russia was closely watching Europe’s efforts to expand defense production, reshape security policy and strengthen deterrence. Moscow, he argued, will not wait until those efforts come to fruition. “As we can see Russia is aware of the changes which are taking place in Europe,” he said, adding that the Kremlin could be “incentivized to go for escalation” to test the alliance. US posture in Europe His comments come as Poland presses for a stronger US military presence on NATO’s eastern flank. Warsaw has said it is ready to host more American troops after President Donald Trump’s administration announced plans to withdraw around 5,000 US troops from Germany, sending shockwaves across the continent. Siewiera said Poland would like to see the US military presence in Europe weighed more toward NATO’s eastern flank. He noted, for example, that Russia and Belarus had announced the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, while the West had yet to respond with a comparable step. ‘No safe places’ In a previous interview with TVP World, Siewiera warned that the war in Ukraine has shown there are “no safe places left in Europe,” with civilian infrastructure, logistics and rear areas becoming central targets in modern conflict. He reiterated on Wednesday that Russia’s hybrid operations not just a problem for Eastern Europe but for countries in the West also. Disruption to Western European aviation, cyberattacks, disinformation and possible nuclear threats could impose higher costs on capitals far from NATO’s border with Russia, he said.
