Russia’s scaled-back Victory Day parade shows that Vladimir Putin’s system is increasingly driven by fear rather than strength, sociologist Sergei Erofeev told TVP World. Erofeev, a lecturer at Rutgers University, told TVP World’s Eastern Express program that the May 9 celebrations have long served as a central pillar of the Kremlin’s political mythology. “The victory day is a very important part of this artificial construct,” Erofeev said, adding that it had helped sustain Putin’s rule “until the beginning of this war in February 2022.” But Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has weakened the symbolic power of the event. Russia is expected to scale down this year’s parade, with no heavy military equipment on Red Square for the first time in years. The move comes amid security concerns and the growing reach of Ukrainian drones, which have repeatedly struck targets deep inside Russia. While the display was long seen as a means of projecting power, both to Russians and Western leaders, it no longer works, Erofeev said. It used to send the message that “Putin is a strong man, that he is supported by his nation, and that his pillars are still there in place... but it's not any longer the case,” he said. A system built around one man He argued that Putin’s call for a temporary ceasefire around Victory Day was also primarily about his own personal safety. “It's all about security. And the discourse of security in Russia today is the discourse of security of only one person,” Erofeev said. The sociologist said rumors of coup fears inside the Kremlin should be treated cautiously, because Russia’s ruling elite remains “a black box.” But he said history shows that personalist autocracies can become unstable when loyalty to the ruler starts to cost more than defection. “Mr. Putin has built something which is not even a party system like in China or like in Iran. It's not ideological. So it's all centered around him,” he said. He added that Putin’s public behavior is shaped by two traditions: street-gang culture and the KGB. Both, he said, taught him “to put on a brave face in a losing game.” “What Mr. Putin does very well, he is a great artist of pretense,” Erofeev said. “Even if things are blowing into his face, he is still not going to show his weakness until the very last moment.”
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has weakened the symbolic power of the May 9 parade. Photo by Contributor/Getty Images
