The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has given Moscow a short-term boost from oil revenues, but it has not changed the underlying weakness of Russia’s war economy, former US Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried has told TVP World. Fried said the Kremlin was “happy” that Washington had become absorbed by the conflict with Iran but warned against overstating Russia’s advantage. “The Russian situation is not good, their economy is vulnerable, and the windfall of the higher price of oil does not negate the disadvantages they have,” he said. The former ambassador spoke as tensions around Hormuz continued to unsettle energy markets and as the EU adopted its 20th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting parts of Moscow’s energy, financial and military-industrial networks. The measures come amid renewed concern that a prolonged Middle East crisis could push oil prices higher and complicate Western efforts to sustain pressure on the Kremlin. Russia still under pressure Fried argued that higher oil revenues would not be enough to offset Russia’s wider problems. “Russia is not able to capitalize on the higher price of oil completely, and the windfall it is making does not compensate for its financial losses in other areas,” he said. He added that EU action could still bite, even without full US coordination. “European Union and European insurance is still the world standard for tankers, and the Russians cannot simply ignore that,” Fried said. The crisis comes as Washington’s attention has shifted toward Iran, while peace efforts over Ukraine appear to have slowed. Fried said the Trump administration should be able to handle both crises at once but questioned the reliance on peace envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff as lead figures in multiple negotiations. “There is no reason that Kushner and Witkoff should be the go to people for every major conflict. They haven't the bandwidth. It's just not possible,” he said. ‘The US should be leaning forward’ Fried argued that the battlefield and political situation now offered Ukraine its best opening in more than a year. “It's at this moment that the US should be leaning forward, putting the pressure on Russia,” he said. He said stronger coordination between Washington and Europe could still change the course of the war. “We could succeed. That would benefit everyone Ukraine, Europe, the free world, generally. But here we are. And I say that without particular pleasure.” On Europe’s role, Fried pointed to the French and British-led “coalition of the willing,” saying Washington should support it rather than criticize it. “The Trump administration would be well advised to embrace what the British and French are doing rather than complain about it. We are going to need them,” he said. Fried said he still expected Washington and Tehran to eventually move toward some form of arrangement resembling the 2015 nuclear deal, with additional provisions on Hormuz. But he cautioned that talks could be drawn out. “This could go on for quite some time,” he said.
