France and Poland’s latest security talks in Gdańsk have pushed nuclear deterrence back to the forefront of debate over European defense, as Paris and Warsaw move to deepen military cooperation in response to the threat posed by Russia. Rolf Nikel, a former German ambassador to Poland, told TVP World’s World News Tonight that the signals coming from Paris should be treated as a real step forward rather than empty messaging. His remarks followed Monday’s meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in which resulted in a commitment to increase defense cooperation on military communications satellites, long-range capabilities and nuclear deterrence. France and Poland also built on the friendship and security treaty they signed in Nancy in May 2025. US nuclear guarantee “still there” For Nikel, the key point is not whether France will replicate NATO’s nuclear-sharing model, but whether Europe is broadening the range of deterrence tools available against Russia. “In the realm of military strategy, strategic ambiguity is not necessarily a bad thing,” he said, arguing that unpredictability can itself restrain an adversary. He said France’s concept of “forward deterrence” should be seen as an addition to, not a replacement for, the US nuclear guarantee still underpinning NATO. “The nuclear guarantee from the US is still there,” Nikel said. “It’s getting more difficult, yes, but it’s still there.” Macron’s Gdańsk talks with Tusk came as Paris and Warsaw announced a joint military satellite project involving Thales Alenia Space, Airbus Defence and Space and Poland’s RADMOR; part of a broader push to strengthen Europe’s defense autonomy and reduce critical dependencies. Weimar still matters Nikel also pushed back against suggestions that tensions between Berlin and Paris undermine the Weimar Triangle, the format linking France, Germany and Poland, created in 1991 and marking its 35th anniversary this year. He said bilateral frictions come and go, but the triangle remains useful precisely because of its informal nature. “I think it’s very much relevant,” Nikel said. “If it didn’t exist, it would need to be invented.” For him, the larger point is simple: with Russia still posing the central threat to European security, Berlin, Paris and Warsaw cannot afford to drift apart. “The more we are together,” he said, “the more we actually deter the Russians.”
